Vilafranca 1–0 Girona II: Result & Stats

Vilafranca

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Girona II

Xavier Pluvins 16'

10/17/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 7Camp Municipal d'Esports

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Vilafranca34%

×Draw29%

Girona II37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VilafrancaExpected goals in this matchGirona II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.05

1.11

Vilafranca

1.05

Girona II

1.11

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 75 home / 78 away

1.19

creates per match

1.23

0.99

allows per match

0.91

creates per match

Vilafranca

1.19

Girona II

1.23

allows per match

Vilafranca

0.99

Girona II

0.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vilafranca+0.00on par

Girona II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vilafranca ↓

Girona II →

0–012%

0–113%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Vilafranca or draw

63%

Vilafranca or Girona II

71%

Draw or Girona II

66%

Winning margin

Vilafranca wins by 2+

13%

Girona II wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Vilafranca 1+ goals

65%

Vilafranca 2+ goals

28%

Vilafranca 3+ goals

Girona II 1+ goals

67%

Girona II 2+ goals

30%

Girona II 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Vilafranca (draw refunded)

48%

Girona II (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Vilafranca at home — creates 1.19, concedes 0.99 · 75 matches

Girona II away — creates 1.23, concedes 0.91 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Vilafranca attack 1.19 + Girona II defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.05

Girona II attack 1.23 + Vilafranca defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 37%?"

Vilafranca scores more

34%

level

29%

Girona II scores more

37%

Girona II at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Girona II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

Xavier Pluvins

46'

Alejandro Pérez← Sergi Benítez

60'

David Acedo← Víctor Oribe

67'

Sarkodie Dapaah← Gabriel Martínez

71'

Romo← Pol Vía

77'

Gabriel Vidal← Xavier Pluvins

80'

Adrià Gené← Jordi Palacios

80'

Mate← Pau Victor

Vilafranca

Girona

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Iván Moreno

60'▲David Acedo←▼Víctor Oribe

71'▲Romo←▼Pol Vía

77'▲Gabriel Vidal←▼Xavier Pluvins

Vilafranca substitutes

AcedoRomoVidal

Manager: Axel Vizuete

46'▲Alejandro Pérez←▼Sergi Benítez

67'▲Sarkodie Dapaah←▼Gabriel Martínez

80'▲Adrià Gené←▼Jordi Palacios

80'▲Mate←▼Pau Victor

Girona II substitutes

PérezDapaahGenéMate

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: Vilafranca 1–0 Girona II

Vilafranca beat Girona II 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on October 17, 2021.

Goals: Xavier Pluvins (16').

The match was played at Camp Municipal d'Esports in Vilafranca del Penedès.

Vilafranca vs Girona II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: Vilafranca 1–0 Girona II