Girona II 7–3 Vilafranca: Result & Stats

Girona II

7 – 3

HT: 3 – 1

Vilafranca

Carles Garrido 70', 60', 50', 48', 37', 19'

Iker Almena 45+3'

Jordi Aumatell 80', 78'

Pedro Bilbao 43'

2/18/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 21Campo Municipal Riudarenes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Girona II50%

×Draw24%

Vilafranca26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Girona IIExpected goals in this matchVilafranca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

1.13

Girona II

1.66

Vilafranca

1.13

Girona II creates 47% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 74 away

1.72

creates per match

1.12

1.13

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Girona II

1.72

Vilafranca

1.12

allows per match

Girona II

1.13

Vilafranca

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Girona II+0.00on par

Vilafranca+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Girona II ↓

Vilafranca →

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–08%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Girona II or draw

74%

Girona II or Vilafranca

76%

Draw or Vilafranca

50%

Winning margin

Girona II wins by 2+

26%

Vilafranca wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Girona II 1+ goals

81%

Girona II 2+ goals

49%

Girona II 3+ goals

23%

Vilafranca 1+ goals

68%

Vilafranca 2+ goals

31%

Vilafranca 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Girona II (draw refunded)

66%

Vilafranca (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Girona II at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.13 · 78 matches

Vilafranca away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.59 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Girona II attack 1.72 + Vilafranca defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.66

Vilafranca attack 1.12 + Girona II defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 50%?"

Girona II scores more

50%

level

24%

Vilafranca scores more

26%

Girona II at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Girona II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

Silvi← M. Kébé

19'

37'

43'

45+3'

46'

Sergi Cadena← Gerard Ramón

48'

Carles Garrido

50'

Carles Garrido

55'

Marti de Castro← Arnau Cañas

55'

Jordi Aumatell← Carlos García

55'

Enric Bernat← Pedro Bilbao

60'

Carles Garrido

61'

Ricard Artero← Ot Serrano

62'

Adrián Toro← Genís Cargol

70'

Carles Garrido

71'

D. Melnichenko← Oriol Comas

71'

W. Suzuki← Carles Garrido

71'

P. Ba← Miguel Sánchez

78'

Jordi Aumatell

80'

Jordi Aumatell

Girona

Vilafranca

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽6

▼

⚽

Manager: Sergi Mora

10'▲Silvi←▼M. Kébé

61'▲Ricard Artero←▼Ot Serrano

71'▲D. Melnichenko←▼Oriol Comas

71'▲W. Suzuki←▼Carles Garrido

71'▲P. Ba←▼Miguel Sánchez

Girona II substitutes

SilviArteroMelnichenkoSuzukiBa

Manager: Triguero

46'▲Sergi Cadena←▼Gerard Ramón

55'▲Marti de Castro←▼Arnau Cañas

55'▲Jordi Aumatell←▼Carlos García

55'▲Enric Bernat←▼Pedro Bilbao

62'▲Adrián Toro←▼Genís Cargol

Vilafranca substitutes

CadenaCastroAumatellBernatToro