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Vilafranca vs Cerdanyola del Vallès — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Vilafranca
Vilafranca
FT
3 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Cerdanyola del Vallès
Cerdanyola del Vallès
3/26/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 26Camp Municipal d'Esports

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Vilafranca43%
×Draw28%
Cerdanyola del Vallès30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vilafranca
1.31
Cerdanyola del Vallès
1.04

Vilafranca creates 26% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 77 away

creates per match

Vilafranca
1.19
Cerdanyola del Vallès
1.08

allows per match

Vilafranca
0.99
Cerdanyola del Vallès
1.44

finishing

Vilafranca+0.00on par
Cerdanyola del Vallès+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vilafranca ↓

Cerdanyola del Vallès →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Vilafranca or draw
70%
Vilafranca or Cerdanyola del Vallès
72%
Draw or Cerdanyola del Vallès
57%

Winning margin

Vilafranca wins by 2+
20%
Cerdanyola del Vallès wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Vilafranca 1+ goals
73%
Vilafranca 2+ goals
38%
Vilafranca 3+ goals
14%
Cerdanyola del Vallès 1+ goals
65%
Cerdanyola del Vallès 2+ goals
28%
Cerdanyola del Vallès 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Vilafranca (draw refunded)
59%
Cerdanyola del Vallès (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vilafranca at home — creates 1.19, concedes 0.99 · 75 matches

Cerdanyola del Vallès away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.44 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vilafranca attack 1.19 + Cerdanyola del Vallès defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.31

Cerdanyola del Vallès attack 1.08 + Vilafranca defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Vilafranca scores more
43%
level
28%
Cerdanyola del Vallès scores more
30%

Vilafranca at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Vilafranca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Vilafranca 3 – 2 Cerdanyola del Vallès

Vilafranca beat Cerdanyola del Vallès 3-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on March 26, 2023.

The match was played at Camp Municipal d'Esports in Vilafranca del Penedès.