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Vila Real vs Tondela — Taça de Portugal 2018

Vila Real
Vila Real
FT
1 – 5
HT: 1 – 2
Tondela
Tondelaadvanced
10/19/2025Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · Round of 64Complexo Desportivo Do Monte Forca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Vila Real22%
×Draw21%
Tondela57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vila Real
1.25
Tondela
2.10

Tondela creates 68% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 12 away

creates per match

Vila Real
1.00
Tondela
1.50

allows per match

Vila Real
2.71
Tondela
1.50

finishing

Vila Real+0.00on par
Tondela+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vila Real ↓

Tondela →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–28%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Vila Real or draw
43%
Vila Real or Tondela
79%
Draw or Tondela
78%

Winning margin

Vila Real wins by 2+
9%
Tondela wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

Vila Real 1+ goals
71%
Vila Real 2+ goals
36%
Vila Real 3+ goals
13%
Tondela 1+ goals
88%
Tondela 2+ goals
62%
Tondela 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Vila Real (draw refunded)
28%
Tondela (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vila Real at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.71 · 7 matches

Tondela away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.50 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vila Real attack 1.00 + Tondela defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.25

Tondela attack 1.50 + Vila Real defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Vila Real scores more
22%
level
21%
Tondela scores more
57%

Tondela at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Tondela will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vila Real vs Tondela

Tondela beat Vila Real 5-1 in Taça de Portugal on October 19, 2025.

The match was played at Complexo Desportivo Do Monte Forca.