Vila Real 0–2 GIL Vicente: Result & Stats

Vila Real

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

GIL Vicente

11/24/2024

Taça de Portugal · 4th RoundCampo Do Calvário

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Vila Real12%

×Draw18%

GIL Vicente70%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vila RealExpected goals in this matchGIL Vicente

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.81

2.24

Vila Real

0.81

GIL Vicente

2.24

GIL Vicente creates 177% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 13 away

1.00

creates per match

1.77

2.71

allows per match

0.62

creates per match

Vila Real

1.00

GIL Vicente

1.77

allows per match

Vila Real

2.71

GIL Vicente

0.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vila Real+0.00on par

GIL Vicente+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vila Real ↓

GIL Vicente →

0–05%

0–111%

0–212%

0–39%

0–45%

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2–02%

2–14%

2–24%

2–33%

2–42%

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (12%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Vila Real or draw

30%

Vila Real or GIL Vicente

82%

Draw or GIL Vicente

88%

Winning margin

Vila Real wins by 2+

GIL Vicente wins by 2+

46%

Team goals

Vila Real 1+ goals

56%

Vila Real 2+ goals

19%

Vila Real 3+ goals

GIL Vicente 1+ goals

89%

GIL Vicente 2+ goals

65%

GIL Vicente 3+ goals

38%

Draw no bet

Vila Real (draw refunded)

15%

GIL Vicente (draw refunded)

85%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Vila Real at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.71 · 7 matches

GIL Vicente away — creates 1.77, concedes 0.62 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Vila Real attack 1.00 + GIL Vicente defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.81

GIL Vicente attack 1.77 + Vila Real defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 70%?"

Vila Real scores more

12%

level

18%

GIL Vicente scores more

70%

GIL Vicente at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "GIL Vicente will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff