Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Vila Real vs FC Porto — Taça de Portugal 2018

Vila Real
Vila Real
FT
0 – 6
FC Porto
FC Porto
10/19/2018Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 3rd RoundComplexo Desportivo Monte Da Forca (Vila Real)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Vila Real8%
×Draw14%
FC Porto77%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vila Real
0.73
FC Porto
2.63

FC Porto creates 260% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 24 away

creates per match

Vila Real
1.00
FC Porto
2.54

allows per match

Vila Real
2.71
FC Porto
0.46

finishing

Vila Real+0.00on par
FC Porto+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vila Real ↓

FC Porto →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–19%
0–212%
0–311%
0–47%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–23%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (12%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Vila Real or draw
23%
Vila Real or FC Porto
86%
Draw or FC Porto
92%

Winning margin

Vila Real wins by 2+
2%
FC Porto wins by 2+
56%

Team goals

Vila Real 1+ goals
52%
Vila Real 2+ goals
17%
Vila Real 3+ goals
4%
FC Porto 1+ goals
93%
FC Porto 2+ goals
73%
FC Porto 3+ goals
48%

Draw no bet

Vila Real (draw refunded)
10%
FC Porto (draw refunded)
90%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vila Real at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.71 · 7 matches

FC Porto away — creates 2.54, concedes 0.46 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vila Real attack 1.00 + FC Porto defence 0.46 → ÷2 → 0.73

FC Porto attack 2.54 + Vila Real defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Vila Real scores more
8%
level
14%
FC Porto scores more
77%

FC Porto at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "FC Porto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Taça de Portugal: Vila Real 0–6 FC Porto

FC Porto beat Vila Real 6-0 in Taça de Portugal on October 19, 2018.

The match was played at Complexo Desportivo Monte Da Forca (Vila Real).