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Vila Real vs Casa Pia — Taça de Portugal 2018

Vila Real
Vila Real
FT
2 – 3
Casa Pia
Casa Pia
I. Silva Nhaga 73', 20'
D. T. Santos Poloni 84'
Vito 82'
D. Djousse 66'
10/11/2020Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 2nd RoundComplexo Desportivo Monte Da Forca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Vila Real10%
×Draw15%
Casa Pia75%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vila Real
0.90
Casa Pia
2.71

Casa Pia creates 201% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 10 away

creates per match

Vila Real
1.00
Casa Pia
2.70

allows per match

Vila Real
2.71
Casa Pia
0.80

finishing

Vila Real+0.00on par
Casa Pia+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vila Real ↓

Casa Pia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–210%
0–39%
0–46%
1
1–02%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–24%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Vila Real or draw
25%
Vila Real or Casa Pia
85%
Draw or Casa Pia
90%

Winning margin

Vila Real wins by 2+
3%
Casa Pia wins by 2+
54%

Team goals

Vila Real 1+ goals
59%
Vila Real 2+ goals
23%
Vila Real 3+ goals
6%
Casa Pia 1+ goals
93%
Casa Pia 2+ goals
75%
Casa Pia 3+ goals
50%

Draw no bet

Vila Real (draw refunded)
12%
Casa Pia (draw refunded)
88%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vila Real at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.71 · 7 matches

Casa Pia away — creates 2.70, concedes 0.80 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vila Real attack 1.00 + Casa Pia defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.90

Casa Pia attack 2.70 + Vila Real defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Vila Real scores more
10%
level
15%
Casa Pia scores more
75%

Casa Pia at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Casa Pia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'
I. Silva Nhaga
66'
D. Djousse
73'
I. Silva Nhaga
82'
Vito
84'
D. T. Santos Poloni
90'
R. Capela

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vila Real vs Casa Pia

Casa Pia beat Vila Real 3-2 in Taça de Portugal on October 11, 2020.

Goals: I. Silva Nhaga (20', 73'), D. Djousse (66'), Vito (82'), D. T. Santos Poloni (84').

The match was played at Complexo Desportivo Monte Da Forca in Vila Real.