Vila Nova 2–0 Goias: Result & Stats | Serie B

Vila Nova

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Goias

João Vieira 80' (pen)

Elias Lira Nogueira Júnior 1'

8/16/2025

Serie B · Round 22Estádio Onésio Brasileiro Alvarenga

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Vila Nova42%

×Draw26%

Goias31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vila NovaExpected goals in this matchGoias

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.17

Vila Nova

1.40

Goias

1.17

Vila Nova creates 20% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 18 away

1.35

creates per match

1.22

1.11

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Vila Nova

1.35

Goias

1.22

allows per match

Vila Nova

1.11

Goias

1.45

+0.51scores more than expected

finishing

-0.11scores less than expected

finishing

Vila Nova+0.51scores more

Goias-0.11scores less

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vila Nova ↓

Goias →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Vila Nova or draw

69%

Vila Nova or Goias

74%

Draw or Goias

58%

Winning margin

Vila Nova wins by 2+

20%

Goias wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Vila Nova 1+ goals

75%

Vila Nova 2+ goals

41%

Vila Nova 3+ goals

17%

Goias 1+ goals

69%

Goias 2+ goals

33%

Goias 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Vila Nova (draw refunded)

57%

Goias (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vila Nova at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.11 · 14 matches

Goias away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.45 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vila Nova attack 1.35 + Goias defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.40

Goias attack 1.22 + Vila Nova defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Vila Nova scores more

42%

level

26%

Goias scores more

31%

Vila Nova at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Vila Nova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2

Elias Lira Nogueira Júnior

Vila Nova · D

7.7

Match Events

-5'

Nathan Melo

1'

Elias Lira Nogueira Júnior

36'

André Luís

38'

Guilherme Parede

40'

Wellington Rato

46'

Welliton← Lucas Ribeiro

46'

Martín Benítez← Jajá

48'

Anselmo Ramon

58'

Bruno Mendes← André Luís

61'

Esli García← Diego Caito

66'

Todinho

73'

Vinicius Paiva← Todinho

74'

Diego Miticov← Dodô

76'

Vinicius PaivaPenalty confirmed

78'

Moraes Júnior

80'

João VieiraPenalty

85'

Vinicius Paiva

88'

Arthur Caíke← Rafael Gava

90'

Jean Mota← João Vieira

90'

Pedro Romano← Guilherme Parede

90'

Gonzalo Freitas← Wellington Rato

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VilaGoias

Overview

28%Possession72%

9Total Shots10

1Corners2

27Fouls11

Shots

9Total Shots10

3On Target3

4Off Target5

2Blocked2

5Inside Box6

4Outside Box4

Passing

28%Possession72%

160Total Passes421

89Accurate Passes352

56%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

3Saves0

Discipline

27Fouls11

5Yellow Cards3

6Offsides1