Vila Nova U20 2–1 Aparecida EC U20: Result & Stats

Vila Nova U20

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Aparecida EC U20

3/8/2024

Goiano U20 · 1st Phase - 2Centro de Treinamento Marconi Perilo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Vila Nova U2061%

×Draw21%

Aparecida EC U2018%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vila Nova U20Expected goals in this matchAparecida EC U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

0.97

Vila Nova U20

2.00

Aparecida EC U20

0.97

Vila Nova U20 creates 106% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 7 away

2.29

creates per match

0.86

1.08

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Vila Nova U20

2.29

Aparecida EC U20

0.86

allows per match

Vila Nova U20

1.08

Aparecida EC U20

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vila Nova U20+0.00on par

Aparecida EC U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vila Nova U20 ↓

Aparecida EC U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Vila Nova U20 or draw

82%

Vila Nova U20 or Aparecida EC U20

79%

Draw or Aparecida EC U20

39%

Winning margin

Vila Nova U20 wins by 2+

37%

Aparecida EC U20 wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Vila Nova U20 1+ goals

86%

Vila Nova U20 2+ goals

59%

Vila Nova U20 3+ goals

32%

Aparecida EC U20 1+ goals

62%

Aparecida EC U20 2+ goals

25%

Aparecida EC U20 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Vila Nova U20 (draw refunded)

78%

Aparecida EC U20 (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vila Nova U20 at home — creates 2.29, concedes 1.08 · 24 matches

Aparecida EC U20 away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vila Nova U20 attack 2.29 + Aparecida EC U20 defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 2.00

Aparecida EC U20 attack 0.86 + Vila Nova U20 defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Vila Nova U20 scores more

61%

level

21%

Aparecida EC U20 scores more

18%

Vila Nova U20 at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Vila Nova U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff