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Vila Meã vs Amarante — League #458 2026

Vila Meã
Vila Meã
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Amarante
Amarante
11/12/2023League #458League #458 · Group B - 10Estádio Municipal de Vila Meã

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Vila Meã27%
×Draw27%
Amarante46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.4%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vila Meã
1.00
Amarante
1.38

Amarante creates 38% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

Vila Meã
0.75
Amarante
2.00

allows per match

Vila Meã
0.75
Amarante
1.25

finishing

Vila Meã+0.00on par
Amarante+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vila Meã ↓

Amarante →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–113%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Vila Meã or draw
54%
Vila Meã or Amarante
73%
Draw or Amarante
73%

Winning margin

Vila Meã wins by 2+
10%
Amarante wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Vila Meã 1+ goals
63%
Vila Meã 2+ goals
26%
Vila Meã 3+ goals
8%
Amarante 1+ goals
75%
Amarante 2+ goals
40%
Amarante 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Vila Meã (draw refunded)
37%
Amarante (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vila Meã at home — creates 0.75, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

Amarante away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vila Meã attack 0.75 + Amarante defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.00

Amarante attack 2.00 + Vila Meã defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Vila Meã scores more
27%
level
27%
Amarante scores more
46%

Amarante at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Amarante will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vila Meã vs Amarante

Amarante beat Vila Meã 1-0 in League #458 on November 12, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal de Vila Meã in Amarante.