Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Vila Meã vs Amarante — Taça de Portugal 2018

Vila Meã
Vila Meã
AET
3 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Amarante
Amarante
9/11/2021Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 1st RoundEstádio Municipal de Vila Meã

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Vila Meã22%
×Draw24%
Amarante54%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vila Meã
1.02
Amarante
1.74

Amarante creates 71% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 11 away

creates per match

Vila Meã
0.50
Amarante
1.73

allows per match

Vila Meã
1.75
Amarante
1.55

finishing

Vila Meã+0.00on par
Amarante+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vila Meã ↓

Amarante →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–111%
0–210%
0–36%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Vila Meã or draw
46%
Vila Meã or Amarante
76%
Draw or Amarante
78%

Winning margin

Vila Meã wins by 2+
8%
Amarante wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Vila Meã 1+ goals
64%
Vila Meã 2+ goals
27%
Vila Meã 3+ goals
8%
Amarante 1+ goals
82%
Amarante 2+ goals
52%
Amarante 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Vila Meã (draw refunded)
29%
Amarante (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vila Meã at home — creates 0.50, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

Amarante away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.55 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vila Meã attack 0.50 + Amarante defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.02

Amarante attack 1.73 + Vila Meã defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Vila Meã scores more
22%
level
24%
Amarante scores more
54%

Amarante at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Amarante will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Taça de Portugal: Vila Meã 3–3 Amarante

Vila Meã and Amarante drew 3-3 in Taça de Portugal on September 11, 2021.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal de Vila Meã in Amarante.