Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Viktoriya Mykolaivka vs SK Poltava — Persha Liga 2019

Viktoriya Mykolaivka
Viktoriya Mykolaivka
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
SK Poltava
SK Poltava
10/25/2024Persha LigaPersha Liga · Round 14Stadion NTK im. B. M. Bannikova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Viktoriya Mykolaivka42%
×Draw27%
SK Poltava30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Viktoriya Mykolaivka
1.33
SK Poltava
1.08

Viktoriya Mykolaivka creates 23% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 37 away

creates per match

Viktoriya Mykolaivka
1.20
SK Poltava
1.43

allows per match

Viktoriya Mykolaivka
0.73
SK Poltava
1.46

finishing

Viktoriya Mykolaivka+0.00on par
SK Poltava+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viktoriya Mykolaivka ↓

SK Poltava →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Viktoriya Mykolaivka or draw
70%
Viktoriya Mykolaivka or SK Poltava
73%
Draw or SK Poltava
58%

Winning margin

Viktoriya Mykolaivka wins by 2+
19%
SK Poltava wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Viktoriya Mykolaivka 1+ goals
74%
Viktoriya Mykolaivka 2+ goals
38%
Viktoriya Mykolaivka 3+ goals
15%
SK Poltava 1+ goals
66%
SK Poltava 2+ goals
29%
SK Poltava 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Viktoriya Mykolaivka (draw refunded)
58%
SK Poltava (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viktoriya Mykolaivka at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.73 · 41 matches

SK Poltava away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.46 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viktoriya Mykolaivka attack 1.20 + SK Poltava defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.33

SK Poltava attack 1.43 + Viktoriya Mykolaivka defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Viktoriya Mykolaivka scores more
42%
level
27%
SK Poltava scores more
30%

Viktoriya Mykolaivka at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Viktoriya Mykolaivka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Persha Liga: Viktoriya Mykolaivka 1–2 SK Poltava

SK Poltava beat Viktoriya Mykolaivka 2-1 in Persha Liga on October 25, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion NTK im. B. M. Bannikova in Kyiv.