Viktorie Přerov 1–3 Zbrojovka Brno II

Viktorie Přerov

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Zbrojovka Brno II

4/22/2023

4. liga - Divizie E · Division E - 19Městský Stadion Přerov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Viktorie Přerov41%

×Draw23%

Zbrojovka Brno II36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Viktorie PřerovExpected goals in this matchZbrojovka Brno II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.76

1.63

Viktorie Přerov

1.76

Zbrojovka Brno II

1.63

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 52 home / 13 away

1.83

creates per match

1.69

1.56

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Viktorie Přerov

1.83

Zbrojovka Brno II

1.69

allows per match

Viktorie Přerov

1.56

Zbrojovka Brno II

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Viktorie Přerov+0.00on par

Zbrojovka Brno II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viktorie Přerov ↓

Zbrojovka Brno II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Viktorie Přerov or draw

64%

Viktorie Přerov or Zbrojovka Brno II

77%

Draw or Zbrojovka Brno II

59%

Winning margin

Viktorie Přerov wins by 2+

22%

Zbrojovka Brno II wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Viktorie Přerov 1+ goals

83%

Viktorie Přerov 2+ goals

52%

Viktorie Přerov 3+ goals

26%

Zbrojovka Brno II 1+ goals

80%

Zbrojovka Brno II 2+ goals

48%

Zbrojovka Brno II 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Viktorie Přerov (draw refunded)

53%

Zbrojovka Brno II (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viktorie Přerov at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.56 · 52 matches

Zbrojovka Brno II away — creates 1.69, concedes 1.69 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viktorie Přerov attack 1.83 + Zbrojovka Brno II defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.76

Zbrojovka Brno II attack 1.69 + Viktorie Přerov defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Viktorie Přerov scores more

41%

level

23%

Zbrojovka Brno II scores more

36%

Viktorie Přerov at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Viktorie Přerov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff