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Viktorie Přerov vs Valašské Meziříčí — 4. liga - Divizie E 2019

Viktorie Přerov
Viktorie Přerov
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Valašské Meziříčí
Valašské Meziříčí
5/7/20224. liga - Divizie E4. liga - Divizie E · Division E - 21Městský Stadion Přerov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Viktorie Přerov44%
×Draw23%
Valašské Meziříčí33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Viktorie Přerov
1.81
Valašské Meziříčí
1.54

Viktorie Přerov creates 18% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 33 away

creates per match

Viktorie Přerov
1.83
Valašské Meziříčí
1.52

allows per match

Viktorie Přerov
1.56
Valašské Meziříčí
1.79

finishing

Viktorie Přerov+0.00on par
Valašské Meziříčí+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viktorie Přerov ↓

Valašské Meziříčí →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Viktorie Přerov or draw
67%
Viktorie Přerov or Valašské Meziříčí
77%
Draw or Valašské Meziříčí
56%

Winning margin

Viktorie Přerov wins by 2+
24%
Valašské Meziříčí wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Viktorie Přerov 1+ goals
84%
Viktorie Přerov 2+ goals
54%
Viktorie Přerov 3+ goals
27%
Valašské Meziříčí 1+ goals
79%
Valašské Meziříčí 2+ goals
45%
Valašské Meziříčí 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Viktorie Přerov (draw refunded)
57%
Valašské Meziříčí (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viktorie Přerov at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.56 · 52 matches

Valašské Meziříčí away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.79 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viktorie Přerov attack 1.83 + Valašské Meziříčí defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.81

Valašské Meziříčí attack 1.52 + Viktorie Přerov defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Viktorie Přerov scores more
44%
level
23%
Valašské Meziříčí scores more
33%

Viktorie Přerov at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Viktorie Přerov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie E: Viktorie Přerov 4–0 Valašské Meziříčí

Viktorie Přerov beat Valašské Meziříčí 4-0 in 4. liga - Divizie E on May 7, 2022.

The match was played at Městský Stadion Přerov in Přerov.