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Viktorie Přerov vs Hranice — 4. liga - Divizie E 2019

Viktorie Přerov
Viktorie Přerov
CANC
13:30
Hranice
Hranice
3/27/20214. liga - Divizie E4. liga - Divizie E · Division E - 13Městský Stadion Přerov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Viktorie Přerov34%
×Draw23%
Hranice43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Viktorie Přerov
1.56
Hranice
1.78

Hranice creates 14% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 38 away

creates per match

Viktorie Přerov
1.83
Hranice
2.00

allows per match

Viktorie Přerov
1.56
Hranice
1.29

finishing

Viktorie Přerov+0.00on par
Hranice+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viktorie Přerov ↓

Hranice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Viktorie Přerov or draw
57%
Viktorie Přerov or Hranice
77%
Draw or Hranice
66%

Winning margin

Viktorie Přerov wins by 2+
16%
Hranice wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Viktorie Přerov 1+ goals
79%
Viktorie Přerov 2+ goals
46%
Viktorie Přerov 3+ goals
21%
Hranice 1+ goals
83%
Hranice 2+ goals
53%
Hranice 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Viktorie Přerov (draw refunded)
44%
Hranice (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viktorie Přerov at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.56 · 52 matches

Hranice away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.29 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viktorie Přerov attack 1.83 + Hranice defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.56

Hranice attack 2.00 + Viktorie Přerov defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Viktorie Přerov scores more
34%
level
23%
Hranice scores more
43%

Hranice at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Hranice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Viktorie Přerov host Hranice

March 27, 2021: Viktorie Přerov take on Hranice in 4. liga - Divizie E. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Viktorie Přerov host Hranice at Městský Stadion Přerov.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.