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Viktoria Žižkov vs Artis — FNL 2019

Viktoria Žižkov
Viktoria Žižkov
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Artis
Artis
5/14/2022FNLFNL · Round 30eFotbal aréna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Viktoria Žižkov38%
×Draw26%
Artis36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Viktoria Žižkov
1.37
Artis
1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 88 home / 103 away

creates per match

Viktoria Žižkov
1.53
Artis
1.28

allows per match

Viktoria Žižkov
1.39
Artis
1.21

finishing

Viktoria Žižkov+0.00on par
Artis+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viktoria Žižkov ↓

Artis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Viktoria Žižkov or draw
64%
Viktoria Žižkov or Artis
74%
Draw or Artis
62%

Winning margin

Viktoria Žižkov wins by 2+
17%
Artis wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Viktoria Žižkov 1+ goals
75%
Viktoria Žižkov 2+ goals
40%
Viktoria Žižkov 3+ goals
16%
Artis 1+ goals
74%
Artis 2+ goals
38%
Artis 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Viktoria Žižkov (draw refunded)
51%
Artis (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viktoria Žižkov at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.39 · 88 matches

Artis away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.21 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viktoria Žižkov attack 1.53 + Artis defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.37

Artis attack 1.28 + Viktoria Žižkov defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Viktoria Žižkov scores more
38%
level
26%
Artis scores more
36%

Viktoria Žižkov at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Viktoria Žižkov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Viktoria Žižkov vs Artis

Viktoria Žižkov beat Artis 3-1 in FNL on May 14, 2022.

The match was played at eFotbal aréna in Praha.