Artis 0–0 Viktoria Žižkov: Result & Stats | FNL

Artis

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Viktoria Žižkov

11/9/2024

FNL · Round 16Stadion SK Líšeň

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Artis49%

×Draw24%

Viktoria Žižkov27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ArtisExpected goals in this matchViktoria Žižkov

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

1.20

Artis

1.68

Viktoria Žižkov

1.20

Artis creates 40% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 88 away

1.53

creates per match

1.30

1.09

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Artis

1.53

Viktoria Žižkov

1.30

allows per match

Artis

1.09

Viktoria Žižkov

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Artis+0.00on par

Viktoria Žižkov+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Artis ↓

Viktoria Žižkov →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Artis or draw

73%

Artis or Viktoria Žižkov

76%

Draw or Viktoria Žižkov

51%

Winning margin

Artis wins by 2+

26%

Viktoria Žižkov wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Artis 1+ goals

81%

Artis 2+ goals

50%

Artis 3+ goals

24%

Viktoria Žižkov 1+ goals

70%

Viktoria Žižkov 2+ goals

34%

Viktoria Žižkov 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Artis (draw refunded)

64%

Viktoria Žižkov (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Artis at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.09 · 103 matches

Viktoria Žižkov away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.82 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Artis attack 1.53 + Viktoria Žižkov defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.68

Viktoria Žižkov attack 1.30 + Artis defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Artis scores more

49%

level

24%

Viktoria Žižkov scores more

27%

Artis at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Artis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff