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Viktoria Plzeň W vs Pardubice W — 1. Liga Women 2020

Viktoria Plzeň W
Viktoria Plzeň W
FT
4 – 2
Pardubice W
Pardubice W
P. Ivanicova 60', 45+3'
E. Nemcova 15'
M. Mrazova 11'
B. Ninczova 45'
S. Novotna 35' (pen)
3/7/20211. Liga Women1. Liga Women · Round 10Luční UMT

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Viktoria Plzeň W61%
×Draw17%
Pardubice W22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Viktoria Plzeň W
2.89
Pardubice W
1.73

Viktoria Plzeň W creates 67% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 40 away

creates per match

Viktoria Plzeň W
1.65
Pardubice W
1.23

allows per match

Viktoria Plzeň W
2.23
Pardubice W
4.13

finishing

Viktoria Plzeň W+0.00on par
Pardubice W+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viktoria Plzeň W ↓

Pardubice W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–15%
1–24%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
67%33%4.5
47%53%

Double chance

Viktoria Plzeň W or draw
78%
Viktoria Plzeň W or Pardubice W
83%
Draw or Pardubice W
39%

Winning margin

Viktoria Plzeň W wins by 2+
41%
Pardubice W wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Viktoria Plzeň W 1+ goals
94%
Viktoria Plzeň W 2+ goals
78%
Viktoria Plzeň W 3+ goals
54%
Pardubice W 1+ goals
82%
Pardubice W 2+ goals
52%
Pardubice W 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Viktoria Plzeň W (draw refunded)
73%
Pardubice W (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
72%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viktoria Plzeň W at home — creates 1.65, concedes 2.23 · 60 matches

Pardubice W away — creates 1.23, concedes 4.13 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viktoria Plzeň W attack 1.65 + Pardubice W defence 4.13 → ÷2 → 2.89

Pardubice W attack 1.23 + Viktoria Plzeň W defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Viktoria Plzeň W scores more
61%
level
17%
Pardubice W scores more
22%

Viktoria Plzeň W at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Viktoria Plzeň W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'
M. Mrazova
15'
E. Nemcova
34'
P. Markelova
35'
S. NovotnaPenalty
45'
B. Ninczova
45+3'
P. Ivanicova
60'
P. Ivanicova

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Viktoria Plzeň W vs Pardubice W

Viktoria Plzeň W beat Pardubice W 4-2 in 1. Liga Women on March 7, 2021.

Goals: M. Mrazova (11'), E. Nemcova (15'), S. Novotna (35' pen), B. Ninczova (45'), P. Ivanicova (45+3', 60').

The match was played at Luční UMT in Plzeň.