Pardubice W 2–1 Viktoria Plzeň W: Result & Stats

Pardubice W

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Viktoria Plzeň W

5/11/2024

1. Liga Women · Relegation Round - 4Stadion K Vinici

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Pardubice W29%

×Draw20%

Viktoria Plzeň W51%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pardubice WExpected goals in this matchViktoria Plzeň W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

2.27

Pardubice W

1.67

Viktoria Plzeň W

2.27

Viktoria Plzeň W creates 36% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 60 away

0.72

creates per match

1.28

3.27

allows per match

2.63

creates per match

Pardubice W

0.72

Viktoria Plzeň W

1.28

allows per match

Pardubice W

3.27

Viktoria Plzeň W

2.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pardubice W+0.00on par

Viktoria Plzeň W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pardubice W ↓

Viktoria Plzeň W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–25%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–28%

1–36%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Pardubice W or draw

49%

Pardubice W or Viktoria Plzeň W

80%

Draw or Viktoria Plzeň W

71%

Winning margin

Pardubice W wins by 2+

14%

Viktoria Plzeň W wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

Pardubice W 1+ goals

81%

Pardubice W 2+ goals

50%

Pardubice W 3+ goals

23%

Viktoria Plzeň W 1+ goals

90%

Viktoria Plzeň W 2+ goals

66%

Viktoria Plzeň W 3+ goals

39%

Draw no bet

Pardubice W (draw refunded)

36%

Viktoria Plzeň W (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pardubice W at home — creates 0.72, concedes 3.27 · 40 matches

Viktoria Plzeň W away — creates 1.28, concedes 2.63 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pardubice W attack 0.72 + Viktoria Plzeň W defence 2.63 → ÷2 → 1.67

Viktoria Plzeň W attack 1.28 + Pardubice W defence 3.27 → ÷2 → 2.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Pardubice W scores more

29%

level

20%

Viktoria Plzeň W scores more

51%

Viktoria Plzeň W at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Viktoria Plzeň W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff