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Viktoria Plzeň W vs FC Praha W — 1. Liga Women 2020

Viktoria Plzeň W
Viktoria Plzeň W
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
FC Praha W
FC Praha W
9/27/20251. Liga Women1. Liga Women · Round 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Viktoria Plzeň W63%
×Draw17%
FC Praha W20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Viktoria Plzeň W
2.95
FC Praha W
1.67

Viktoria Plzeň W creates 77% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 20 away

creates per match

Viktoria Plzeň W
1.65
FC Praha W
1.10

allows per match

Viktoria Plzeň W
2.23
FC Praha W
4.25

finishing

Viktoria Plzeň W+0.00on par
FC Praha W+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viktoria Plzeň W ↓

FC Praha W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–15%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
67%33%4.5
47%53%

Double chance

Viktoria Plzeň W or draw
80%
Viktoria Plzeň W or FC Praha W
83%
Draw or FC Praha W
37%

Winning margin

Viktoria Plzeň W wins by 2+
43%
FC Praha W wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Viktoria Plzeň W 1+ goals
95%
Viktoria Plzeň W 2+ goals
79%
Viktoria Plzeň W 3+ goals
55%
FC Praha W 1+ goals
81%
FC Praha W 2+ goals
50%
FC Praha W 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Viktoria Plzeň W (draw refunded)
76%
FC Praha W (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
72%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viktoria Plzeň W at home — creates 1.65, concedes 2.23 · 60 matches

FC Praha W away — creates 1.10, concedes 4.25 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viktoria Plzeň W attack 1.65 + FC Praha W defence 4.25 → ÷2 → 2.95

FC Praha W attack 1.10 + Viktoria Plzeň W defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Viktoria Plzeň W scores more
63%
level
17%
FC Praha W scores more
20%

Viktoria Plzeň W at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Viktoria Plzeň W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga Women: Viktoria Plzeň W 3–1 FC Praha W

Viktoria Plzeň W beat FC Praha W 3-1 in 1. Liga Women on September 27, 2025.