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Viktoria Plzeň W vs Dukla Praha W — 1. Liga Women 2020

Viktoria Plzeň W
Viktoria Plzeň W
FT
5 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Dukla Praha W
Dukla Praha W
4/2/20221. Liga Women1. Liga Women · Relegation Round - 1Luční UMT

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Viktoria Plzeň W65%
×Draw17%
Dukla Praha W18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Viktoria Plzeň W
2.69
Dukla Praha W
1.38

Viktoria Plzeň W creates 95% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 30 away

creates per match

Viktoria Plzeň W
1.65
Dukla Praha W
0.53

allows per match

Viktoria Plzeň W
2.23
Dukla Praha W
3.73

finishing

Viktoria Plzeň W+0.00on par
Dukla Praha W+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viktoria Plzeň W ↓

Dukla Praha W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–16%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Viktoria Plzeň W or draw
82%
Viktoria Plzeň W or Dukla Praha W
83%
Draw or Dukla Praha W
35%

Winning margin

Viktoria Plzeň W wins by 2+
44%
Dukla Praha W wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Viktoria Plzeň W 1+ goals
93%
Viktoria Plzeň W 2+ goals
74%
Viktoria Plzeň W 3+ goals
49%
Dukla Praha W 1+ goals
75%
Dukla Praha W 2+ goals
40%
Dukla Praha W 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Viktoria Plzeň W (draw refunded)
78%
Dukla Praha W (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viktoria Plzeň W at home — creates 1.65, concedes 2.23 · 60 matches

Dukla Praha W away — creates 0.53, concedes 3.73 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viktoria Plzeň W attack 1.65 + Dukla Praha W defence 3.73 → ÷2 → 2.69

Dukla Praha W attack 0.53 + Viktoria Plzeň W defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Viktoria Plzeň W scores more
65%
level
17%
Dukla Praha W scores more
18%

Viktoria Plzeň W at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Viktoria Plzeň W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga Women: Viktoria Plzeň W 5–0 Dukla Praha W

Viktoria Plzeň W beat Dukla Praha W 5-0 in 1. Liga Women on April 2, 2022.

The match was played at Luční UMT in Plzeň.