Dukla Praha W 3–2 Viktoria Plzeň W: Result & Stats

Dukla Praha W

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Viktoria Plzeň W

5/1/2022

1. Liga Women · Relegation Round - 4Stadion Juliska

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Dukla Praha W37%

×Draw20%

Viktoria Plzeň W43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dukla Praha WExpected goals in this matchViktoria Plzeň W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.01

2.19

Dukla Praha W

2.01

Viktoria Plzeň W

2.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 60 away

1.40

creates per match

1.28

3.10

allows per match

2.63

creates per match

Dukla Praha W

1.40

Viktoria Plzeň W

1.28

allows per match

Dukla Praha W

3.10

Viktoria Plzeň W

2.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dukla Praha W+0.00on par

Viktoria Plzeň W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes77
No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dukla Praha W ↓

Viktoria Plzeň W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–27%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–25%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

60%40%4.5

40%60%

Double chance

Dukla Praha W or draw

57%

Dukla Praha W or Viktoria Plzeň W

80%

Draw or Viktoria Plzeň W

63%

Winning margin

Dukla Praha W wins by 2+

20%

Viktoria Plzeň W wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Dukla Praha W 1+ goals

87%

Dukla Praha W 2+ goals

59%

Dukla Praha W 3+ goals

32%

Viktoria Plzeň W 1+ goals

89%

Viktoria Plzeň W 2+ goals

64%

Viktoria Plzeň W 3+ goals

37%

Draw no bet

Dukla Praha W (draw refunded)

46%

Viktoria Plzeň W (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

70%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dukla Praha W at home — creates 1.40, concedes 3.10 · 30 matches

Viktoria Plzeň W away — creates 1.28, concedes 2.63 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dukla Praha W attack 1.40 + Viktoria Plzeň W defence 2.63 → ÷2 → 2.01

Viktoria Plzeň W attack 1.28 + Dukla Praha W defence 3.10 → ÷2 → 2.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Dukla Praha W scores more

37%

level

20%

Viktoria Plzeň W scores more

43%

Viktoria Plzeň W at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Viktoria Plzeň W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff