Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Viktoria Plzeň W vs Baník Ostrava W — 1. Liga Women 2020

Viktoria Plzeň W
Viktoria Plzeň W
FT
1 – 5
HT: 1 – 3
Baník Ostrava W
Baník Ostrava W
3/29/20261. Liga Women1. Liga Women · Round 15

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Viktoria Plzeň W54%
×Draw19%
Baník Ostrava W27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Viktoria Plzeň W
2.49
Baník Ostrava W
1.75

Viktoria Plzeň W creates 42% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 30 away

creates per match

Viktoria Plzeň W
1.65
Baník Ostrava W
1.27

allows per match

Viktoria Plzeň W
2.23
Baník Ostrava W
3.33

finishing

Viktoria Plzeň W+0.00on par
Baník Ostrava W+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viktoria Plzeň W ↓

Baník Ostrava W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
61%39%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

Viktoria Plzeň W or draw
73%
Viktoria Plzeň W or Baník Ostrava W
81%
Draw or Baník Ostrava W
46%

Winning margin

Viktoria Plzeň W wins by 2+
34%
Baník Ostrava W wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Viktoria Plzeň W 1+ goals
92%
Viktoria Plzeň W 2+ goals
71%
Viktoria Plzeň W 3+ goals
45%
Baník Ostrava W 1+ goals
83%
Baník Ostrava W 2+ goals
52%
Baník Ostrava W 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Viktoria Plzeň W (draw refunded)
66%
Baník Ostrava W (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viktoria Plzeň W at home — creates 1.65, concedes 2.23 · 60 matches

Baník Ostrava W away — creates 1.27, concedes 3.33 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viktoria Plzeň W attack 1.65 + Baník Ostrava W defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 2.49

Baník Ostrava W attack 1.27 + Viktoria Plzeň W defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Viktoria Plzeň W scores more
54%
level
19%
Baník Ostrava W scores more
27%

Viktoria Plzeň W at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Viktoria Plzeň W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga Women: Viktoria Plzeň W 1–5 Baník Ostrava W

Baník Ostrava W beat Viktoria Plzeň W 5-1 in 1. Liga Women on March 29, 2026.