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Viktoria Plzeň U19 vs Slovan Liberec U19 — 1. Liga U19 2020

Viktoria Plzeň U19
Viktoria Plzeň U19
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Slovan Liberec U19
Slovan Liberec U19
5/24/20251. Liga U191. Liga U19 · Round 27Stadion TJ Slavoj Stod

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Viktoria Plzeň U1961%
×Draw19%
Slovan Liberec U1920%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Viktoria Plzeň U19
2.36
Slovan Liberec U19
1.30

Viktoria Plzeň U19 creates 82% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 45 away

creates per match

Viktoria Plzeň U19
2.25
Slovan Liberec U19
1.31

allows per match

Viktoria Plzeň U19
1.29
Slovan Liberec U19
2.47

finishing

Viktoria Plzeň U19+0.00on par
Slovan Liberec U19+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viktoria Plzeň U19 ↓

Slovan Liberec U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Viktoria Plzeň U19 or draw
80%
Viktoria Plzeň U19 or Slovan Liberec U19
81%
Draw or Slovan Liberec U19
39%

Winning margin

Viktoria Plzeň U19 wins by 2+
39%
Slovan Liberec U19 wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Viktoria Plzeň U19 1+ goals
90%
Viktoria Plzeň U19 2+ goals
68%
Viktoria Plzeň U19 3+ goals
41%
Slovan Liberec U19 1+ goals
73%
Slovan Liberec U19 2+ goals
37%
Slovan Liberec U19 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Viktoria Plzeň U19 (draw refunded)
75%
Slovan Liberec U19 (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viktoria Plzeň U19 at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.29 · 79 matches

Slovan Liberec U19 away — creates 1.31, concedes 2.47 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viktoria Plzeň U19 attack 2.25 + Slovan Liberec U19 defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 2.36

Slovan Liberec U19 attack 1.31 + Viktoria Plzeň U19 defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Viktoria Plzeň U19 scores more
61%
level
19%
Slovan Liberec U19 scores more
20%

Viktoria Plzeň U19 at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Viktoria Plzeň U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Viktoria Plzeň U19 vs Slovan Liberec U19

Viktoria Plzeň U19 beat Slovan Liberec U19 2-1 in 1. Liga U19 on May 24, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion TJ Slavoj Stod in Stod-Plzeň-jih.