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Viktoria Plzeň U19 vs Real Madrid U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Viktoria Plzeň U19
Viktoria Plzeň U19
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Real Madrid U19
Real Madrid U19
11/7/2018UEFA Youth LeagueUEFA Youth League · Group Stage - 4Stadion Přeštice (Přeštice)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Viktoria Plzeň U1917%
×Draw18%
Real Madrid U1965%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Viktoria Plzeň U19
1.19
Real Madrid U19
2.45

Real Madrid U19 creates 106% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 25 away

creates per match

Viktoria Plzeň U19
1.33
Real Madrid U19
2.56

allows per match

Viktoria Plzeň U19
2.33
Real Madrid U19
1.04

finishing

Viktoria Plzeň U19+0.00on par
Real Madrid U19+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viktoria Plzeň U19 ↓

Real Madrid U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–28%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–210%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Viktoria Plzeň U19 or draw
35%
Viktoria Plzeň U19 or Real Madrid U19
82%
Draw or Real Madrid U19
83%

Winning margin

Viktoria Plzeň U19 wins by 2+
6%
Real Madrid U19 wins by 2+
43%

Team goals

Viktoria Plzeň U19 1+ goals
70%
Viktoria Plzeň U19 2+ goals
33%
Viktoria Plzeň U19 3+ goals
12%
Real Madrid U19 1+ goals
91%
Real Madrid U19 2+ goals
70%
Real Madrid U19 3+ goals
44%

Draw no bet

Viktoria Plzeň U19 (draw refunded)
21%
Real Madrid U19 (draw refunded)
79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viktoria Plzeň U19 at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.33 · 6 matches

Real Madrid U19 away — creates 2.56, concedes 1.04 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viktoria Plzeň U19 attack 1.33 + Real Madrid U19 defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.19

Real Madrid U19 attack 2.56 + Viktoria Plzeň U19 defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Viktoria Plzeň U19 scores more
17%
level
18%
Real Madrid U19 scores more
65%

Real Madrid U19 at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Real Madrid U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Viktoria Plzeň U19 vs Real Madrid U19

Real Madrid U19 beat Viktoria Plzeň U19 2-1 in UEFA Youth League on November 7, 2018.

The match was played at Stadion Přeštice (Přeštice).