Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Viktoria Plzeň U19 vs Příbram U19 — 1. Liga U19 2020

Viktoria Plzeň U19
Viktoria Plzeň U19
FT
3 – 1
Příbram U19
Příbram U19
M. Doubek 79'
M. Kruta 74'
T. Keltycka 42'
M. Walter 78'
9/28/20211. Liga U191. Liga U19 · Round 15Stadion Luční ulice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Viktoria Plzeň U1978%
×Draw13%
Příbram U199%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Viktoria Plzeň U19
3.25
Příbram U19
1.07

Viktoria Plzeň U19 creates 204% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 33 away

creates per match

Viktoria Plzeň U19
2.25
Příbram U19
0.85

allows per match

Viktoria Plzeň U19
1.29
Příbram U19
4.24

finishing

Viktoria Plzeň U19+0.00on par
Příbram U19+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viktoria Plzeň U19 ↓

Příbram U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–15%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–19%
3–25%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–17%
4–24%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–1 (9%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
61%39%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Viktoria Plzeň U19 or draw
91%
Viktoria Plzeň U19 or Příbram U19
87%
Draw or Příbram U19
22%

Winning margin

Viktoria Plzeň U19 wins by 2+
60%
Příbram U19 wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Viktoria Plzeň U19 1+ goals
96%
Viktoria Plzeň U19 2+ goals
83%
Viktoria Plzeň U19 3+ goals
61%
Příbram U19 1+ goals
66%
Příbram U19 2+ goals
29%
Příbram U19 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Viktoria Plzeň U19 (draw refunded)
90%
Příbram U19 (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viktoria Plzeň U19 at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.29 · 79 matches

Příbram U19 away — creates 0.85, concedes 4.24 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viktoria Plzeň U19 attack 2.25 + Příbram U19 defence 4.24 → ÷2 → 3.25

Příbram U19 attack 0.85 + Viktoria Plzeň U19 defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Viktoria Plzeň U19 scores more
78%
level
13%
Příbram U19 scores more
9%

Viktoria Plzeň U19 at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Viktoria Plzeň U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

42'
T. Keltycka
74'
M. Kruta
78'
M. Walter
79'
M. Doubek

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Viktoria Plzeň U19 vs Příbram U19

Viktoria Plzeň U19 beat Příbram U19 3-1 in 1. Liga U19 on September 28, 2021.

Goals: T. Keltycka (42'), M. Kruta (74'), M. Walter (78'), M. Doubek (79').

The match was played at Stadion Luční ulice in Plzeň.