Viktoria Plzeň U19 0–0 Opava U19: Result & Stats

Viktoria Plzeň U19

FT

0 – 0

Opava U19

9/12/2020

1. Liga U19 · Round 4Stadion Luční ulice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Viktoria Plzeň U1965%

×Draw19%

Opava U1916%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Viktoria Plzeň U19Expected goals in this matchOpava U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.32

1.08

Viktoria Plzeň U19

2.32

Opava U19

1.08

Viktoria Plzeň U19 creates 115% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 33 away

2.25

creates per match

0.88

1.29

allows per match

2.39

creates per match

Viktoria Plzeň U19

2.25

Opava U19

0.88

allows per match

Viktoria Plzeň U19

1.29

Opava U19

2.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Viktoria Plzeň U19+0.00on par

Opava U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viktoria Plzeň U19 ↓

Opava U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Viktoria Plzeň U19 or draw

84%

Viktoria Plzeň U19 or Opava U19

81%

Draw or Opava U19

35%

Winning margin

Viktoria Plzeň U19 wins by 2+

42%

Opava U19 wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Viktoria Plzeň U19 1+ goals

90%

Viktoria Plzeň U19 2+ goals

67%

Viktoria Plzeň U19 3+ goals

40%

Opava U19 1+ goals

66%

Opava U19 2+ goals

29%

Opava U19 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Viktoria Plzeň U19 (draw refunded)

80%

Opava U19 (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viktoria Plzeň U19 at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.29 · 79 matches

Opava U19 away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.39 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viktoria Plzeň U19 attack 2.25 + Opava U19 defence 2.39 → ÷2 → 2.32

Opava U19 attack 0.88 + Viktoria Plzeň U19 defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Viktoria Plzeň U19 scores more

65%

level

19%

Opava U19 scores more

16%

Viktoria Plzeň U19 at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Viktoria Plzeň U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff