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Opava U19 vs Viktoria Plzeň U19 — 1. Liga U19 2020

Opava U19
Opava U19
CANC
08:30
Viktoria Plzeň U19
Viktoria Plzeň U19
4/10/20211. Liga U191. Liga U19 · Round 19Stadion v Městských sadech

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Opava U1926%
×Draw22%
Viktoria Plzeň U1952%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Opava U19
1.37
Viktoria Plzeň U19
2.00

Viktoria Plzeň U19 creates 46% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 79 away

creates per match

Opava U19
1.12
Viktoria Plzeň U19
1.57

allows per match

Opava U19
2.42
Viktoria Plzeň U19
1.62

finishing

Opava U19+0.00on par
Viktoria Plzeň U19+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Opava U19 ↓

Viktoria Plzeň U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–27%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Opava U19 or draw
48%
Opava U19 or Viktoria Plzeň U19
78%
Draw or Viktoria Plzeň U19
74%

Winning margin

Opava U19 wins by 2+
11%
Viktoria Plzeň U19 wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Opava U19 1+ goals
75%
Opava U19 2+ goals
40%
Opava U19 3+ goals
16%
Viktoria Plzeň U19 1+ goals
86%
Viktoria Plzeň U19 2+ goals
59%
Viktoria Plzeň U19 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Opava U19 (draw refunded)
34%
Viktoria Plzeň U19 (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Opava U19 at home — creates 1.12, concedes 2.42 · 33 matches

Viktoria Plzeň U19 away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.62 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Opava U19 attack 1.12 + Viktoria Plzeň U19 defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.37

Viktoria Plzeň U19 attack 1.57 + Opava U19 defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Opava U19 scores more
26%
level
22%
Viktoria Plzeň U19 scores more
52%

Viktoria Plzeň U19 at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Viktoria Plzeň U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Opava U19 face Viktoria Plzeň U19 (1. Liga U19)

1. Liga U19 returns with Opava U19 hosting Viktoria Plzeň U19. Match starts April 10, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Opava U19 host Viktoria Plzeň U19 at Stadion v Městských sadech.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.