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Viktoria Plzeň U19 vs Meteor Praha U19 — 1. Liga U19 2020

Viktoria Plzeň U19
Viktoria Plzeň U19
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Meteor Praha U19
Meteor Praha U19
2/26/20221. Liga U191. Liga U19 · Round 29Luční UMT

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Viktoria Plzeň U1970%
×Draw17%
Meteor Praha U1914%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Viktoria Plzeň U19
2.59
Meteor Praha U19
1.06

Viktoria Plzeň U19 creates 144% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 18 away

creates per match

Viktoria Plzeň U19
2.25
Meteor Praha U19
0.83

allows per match

Viktoria Plzeň U19
1.29
Meteor Praha U19
2.94

finishing

Viktoria Plzeň U19+0.00on par
Meteor Praha U19+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viktoria Plzeň U19 ↓

Meteor Praha U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–17%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Viktoria Plzeň U19 or draw
86%
Viktoria Plzeň U19 or Meteor Praha U19
83%
Draw or Meteor Praha U19
30%

Winning margin

Viktoria Plzeň U19 wins by 2+
48%
Meteor Praha U19 wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Viktoria Plzeň U19 1+ goals
92%
Viktoria Plzeň U19 2+ goals
73%
Viktoria Plzeň U19 3+ goals
47%
Meteor Praha U19 1+ goals
65%
Meteor Praha U19 2+ goals
29%
Meteor Praha U19 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Viktoria Plzeň U19 (draw refunded)
84%
Meteor Praha U19 (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viktoria Plzeň U19 at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.29 · 79 matches

Meteor Praha U19 away — creates 0.83, concedes 2.94 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viktoria Plzeň U19 attack 2.25 + Meteor Praha U19 defence 2.94 → ÷2 → 2.59

Meteor Praha U19 attack 0.83 + Viktoria Plzeň U19 defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Viktoria Plzeň U19 scores more
70%
level
17%
Meteor Praha U19 scores more
14%

Viktoria Plzeň U19 at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Viktoria Plzeň U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Viktoria Plzeň U19 vs Meteor Praha U19

Viktoria Plzeň U19 beat Meteor Praha U19 2-1 in 1. Liga U19 on February 26, 2022.

The match was played at Luční UMT in Plzeň.