Viktoria Plzeň U19 1–1 Frýdek-Místek U19

Viktoria Plzeň U19

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Frýdek-Místek U19

D. Suchy 41' (pen)

J. Harustak 7' (pen)

3/23/2024

1. Liga U19 · Round 19Luční UMT

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Viktoria Plzeň U1969%

×Draw17%

Frýdek-Místek U1914%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Viktoria Plzeň U19Expected goals in this matchFrýdek-Místek U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.56

1.08

Viktoria Plzeň U19

2.56

Frýdek-Místek U19

1.08

Viktoria Plzeň U19 creates 137% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 15 away

2.25

creates per match

0.87

1.29

allows per match

2.87

creates per match

Viktoria Plzeň U19

2.25

Frýdek-Místek U19

0.87

allows per match

Viktoria Plzeň U19

1.29

Frýdek-Místek U19

2.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Viktoria Plzeň U19+0.00on par

Frýdek-Místek U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viktoria Plzeň U19 ↓

Frýdek-Místek U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–17%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Viktoria Plzeň U19 or draw

86%

Viktoria Plzeň U19 or Frýdek-Místek U19

83%

Draw or Frýdek-Místek U19

31%

Winning margin

Viktoria Plzeň U19 wins by 2+

47%

Frýdek-Místek U19 wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Viktoria Plzeň U19 1+ goals

92%

Viktoria Plzeň U19 2+ goals

72%

Viktoria Plzeň U19 3+ goals

46%

Frýdek-Místek U19 1+ goals

66%

Frýdek-Místek U19 2+ goals

29%

Frýdek-Místek U19 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Viktoria Plzeň U19 (draw refunded)

83%

Frýdek-Místek U19 (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viktoria Plzeň U19 at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.29 · 79 matches

Frýdek-Místek U19 away — creates 0.87, concedes 2.87 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viktoria Plzeň U19 attack 2.25 + Frýdek-Místek U19 defence 2.87 → ÷2 → 2.56

Frýdek-Místek U19 attack 0.87 + Viktoria Plzeň U19 defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Viktoria Plzeň U19 scores more

69%

level

17%

Frýdek-Místek U19 scores more

14%

Viktoria Plzeň U19 at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Viktoria Plzeň U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

J. HarustakPenalty

41'

D. SuchyPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff