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Viktoria Plzeň U19 vs Baník Ostrava U19 — 1. Liga U19 2020

Viktoria Plzeň U19
Viktoria Plzeň U19
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Baník Ostrava U19
Baník Ostrava U19
J. Kucharik 77'
T. Frydl 52'
5/7/20251. Liga U191. Liga U19 · Round 18Stadion Touškov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Viktoria Plzeň U1947%
×Draw22%
Baník Ostrava U1931%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Viktoria Plzeň U19
1.93
Baník Ostrava U19
1.55

Viktoria Plzeň U19 creates 25% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 77 away

creates per match

Viktoria Plzeň U19
2.25
Baník Ostrava U19
1.81

allows per match

Viktoria Plzeň U19
1.29
Baník Ostrava U19
1.60

finishing

Viktoria Plzeň U19+0.00on par
Baník Ostrava U19+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viktoria Plzeň U19 ↓

Baník Ostrava U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Viktoria Plzeň U19 or draw
69%
Viktoria Plzeň U19 or Baník Ostrava U19
78%
Draw or Baník Ostrava U19
53%

Winning margin

Viktoria Plzeň U19 wins by 2+
26%
Baník Ostrava U19 wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Viktoria Plzeň U19 1+ goals
85%
Viktoria Plzeň U19 2+ goals
57%
Viktoria Plzeň U19 3+ goals
30%
Baník Ostrava U19 1+ goals
79%
Baník Ostrava U19 2+ goals
46%
Baník Ostrava U19 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Viktoria Plzeň U19 (draw refunded)
60%
Baník Ostrava U19 (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viktoria Plzeň U19 at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.29 · 79 matches

Baník Ostrava U19 away — creates 1.81, concedes 1.60 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viktoria Plzeň U19 attack 2.25 + Baník Ostrava U19 defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.93

Baník Ostrava U19 attack 1.81 + Viktoria Plzeň U19 defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Viktoria Plzeň U19 scores more
47%
level
22%
Baník Ostrava U19 scores more
31%

Viktoria Plzeň U19 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Viktoria Plzeň U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

37'
D. Toman
46'
J. Graclik← J. Graclik
52'
T. Frydl
59'
E. Dulik← E. Dulik
63'
T. Kowalczyk
67'
S. Ninac← S. Ninac
67'
V. Skrkon← V. Skrkon
76'
D. Machac← D. Machac
77'
J. Kucharik
81'
L. Matusinsky← L. Matusinsky
81'
C. Lores← C. Lores
90+2'
D. Kardos← D. Kardos

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga U19: Viktoria Plzeň U19 1–1 Baník Ostrava U19

Viktoria Plzeň U19 and Baník Ostrava U19 drew 1-1 in 1. Liga U19 on May 7, 2025.

Goals: T. Frydl (52'), J. Kucharik (77').

The match was played at Stadion Touškov in Město Touškov.