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Viktoria Plzeň II vs Motorlet Praha — 3. liga - CFL A 2019

Viktoria Plzeň II
Viktoria Plzeň II
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Motorlet Praha
Motorlet Praha
10/27/20243. liga - CFL A3. liga - CFL A · ČFL A - 12Stadion Luční ulice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Viktoria Plzeň II54%
×Draw22%
Motorlet Praha24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Viktoria Plzeň II
1.90
Motorlet Praha
1.18

Viktoria Plzeň II creates 61% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 84 away

creates per match

Viktoria Plzeň II
2.26
Motorlet Praha
1.30

allows per match

Viktoria Plzeň II
1.06
Motorlet Praha
1.54

finishing

Viktoria Plzeň II+0.00on par
Motorlet Praha+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viktoria Plzeň II ↓

Motorlet Praha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Viktoria Plzeň II or draw
76%
Viktoria Plzeň II or Motorlet Praha
78%
Draw or Motorlet Praha
46%

Winning margin

Viktoria Plzeň II wins by 2+
31%
Motorlet Praha wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Viktoria Plzeň II 1+ goals
85%
Viktoria Plzeň II 2+ goals
56%
Viktoria Plzeň II 3+ goals
29%
Motorlet Praha 1+ goals
69%
Motorlet Praha 2+ goals
33%
Motorlet Praha 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Viktoria Plzeň II (draw refunded)
70%
Motorlet Praha (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viktoria Plzeň II at home — creates 2.26, concedes 1.06 · 85 matches

Motorlet Praha away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.54 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viktoria Plzeň II attack 2.26 + Motorlet Praha defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.90

Motorlet Praha attack 1.30 + Viktoria Plzeň II defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Viktoria Plzeň II scores more
54%
level
22%
Motorlet Praha scores more
24%

Viktoria Plzeň II at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Viktoria Plzeň II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Viktoria Plzeň II vs Motorlet Praha

Motorlet Praha beat Viktoria Plzeň II 1-0 in 3. liga - CFL A on October 27, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Luční ulice in Plzeň.