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Viktoria Plzeň II vs Dukla Praha II — 3. liga - CFL A 2019

Viktoria Plzeň II
Viktoria Plzeň II
FT
3 – 3
HT: 2 – 0
Dukla Praha II
Dukla Praha II
6/8/20243. liga - CFL A3. liga - CFL A · ČFL A - 30Stadion TJ Slavoj Stod

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Viktoria Plzeň II51%
×Draw22%
Dukla Praha II27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Viktoria Plzeň II
1.97
Dukla Praha II
1.38

Viktoria Plzeň II creates 43% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 61 away

creates per match

Viktoria Plzeň II
2.26
Dukla Praha II
1.69

allows per match

Viktoria Plzeň II
1.06
Dukla Praha II
1.69

finishing

Viktoria Plzeň II+0.00on par
Dukla Praha II+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viktoria Plzeň II ↓

Dukla Praha II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Viktoria Plzeň II or draw
73%
Viktoria Plzeň II or Dukla Praha II
78%
Draw or Dukla Praha II
49%

Winning margin

Viktoria Plzeň II wins by 2+
29%
Dukla Praha II wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Viktoria Plzeň II 1+ goals
86%
Viktoria Plzeň II 2+ goals
58%
Viktoria Plzeň II 3+ goals
31%
Dukla Praha II 1+ goals
75%
Dukla Praha II 2+ goals
40%
Dukla Praha II 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Viktoria Plzeň II (draw refunded)
65%
Dukla Praha II (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viktoria Plzeň II at home — creates 2.26, concedes 1.06 · 85 matches

Dukla Praha II away — creates 1.69, concedes 1.69 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viktoria Plzeň II attack 2.26 + Dukla Praha II defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.97

Dukla Praha II attack 1.69 + Viktoria Plzeň II defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Viktoria Plzeň II scores more
51%
level
22%
Dukla Praha II scores more
27%

Viktoria Plzeň II at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Viktoria Plzeň II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Viktoria Plzeň II vs Dukla Praha II

Viktoria Plzeň II and Dukla Praha II drew 3-3 in 3. liga - CFL A on June 8, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion TJ Slavoj Stod in Stod-Plzeň-jih.