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Viktoria Plzeň II vs Bohemians 1905 II — 3. liga - CFL A 2019

Viktoria Plzeň II
Viktoria Plzeň II
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Bohemians 1905 II
Bohemians 1905 II
5/31/20253. liga - CFL A3. liga - CFL A · ČFL A - 30Stadion TJ Keramika Chlumčany

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Viktoria Plzeň II55%
×Draw21%
Bohemians 1905 II23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Viktoria Plzeň II
2.05
Bohemians 1905 II
1.27

Viktoria Plzeň II creates 61% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 61 away

creates per match

Viktoria Plzeň II
2.26
Bohemians 1905 II
1.48

allows per match

Viktoria Plzeň II
1.06
Bohemians 1905 II
1.85

finishing

Viktoria Plzeň II+0.00on par
Bohemians 1905 II+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viktoria Plzeň II ↓

Bohemians 1905 II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Viktoria Plzeň II or draw
77%
Viktoria Plzeň II or Bohemians 1905 II
79%
Draw or Bohemians 1905 II
45%

Winning margin

Viktoria Plzeň II wins by 2+
33%
Bohemians 1905 II wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Viktoria Plzeň II 1+ goals
87%
Viktoria Plzeň II 2+ goals
61%
Viktoria Plzeň II 3+ goals
33%
Bohemians 1905 II 1+ goals
72%
Bohemians 1905 II 2+ goals
36%
Bohemians 1905 II 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Viktoria Plzeň II (draw refunded)
70%
Bohemians 1905 II (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viktoria Plzeň II at home — creates 2.26, concedes 1.06 · 85 matches

Bohemians 1905 II away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.85 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viktoria Plzeň II attack 2.26 + Bohemians 1905 II defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 2.05

Bohemians 1905 II attack 1.48 + Viktoria Plzeň II defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Viktoria Plzeň II scores more
55%
level
21%
Bohemians 1905 II scores more
23%

Viktoria Plzeň II at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Viktoria Plzeň II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - CFL A: Viktoria Plzeň II 3–1 Bohemians 1905 II

Viktoria Plzeň II beat Bohemians 1905 II 3-1 in 3. liga - CFL A on May 31, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion TJ Keramika Chlumčany in Chlumčany u Přeštic.