Viktoria Otrokovice vs Uherský Brod

Viktoria Otrokovice

CANC

15:00

Uherský Brod

5/24/2020

3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 28Stadion FC Viktoria Otrokovice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Viktoria Otrokovice51%

×Draw22%

Uherský Brod27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Viktoria OtrokoviceExpected goals in this matchUherský Brod

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.95

1.35

Viktoria Otrokovice

1.95

Uherský Brod

1.35

Viktoria Otrokovice creates 44% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 61 away

1.62

creates per match

0.93

1.77

allows per match

2.28

creates per match

Viktoria Otrokovice

1.62

Uherský Brod

0.93

allows per match

Viktoria Otrokovice

1.77

Uherský Brod

2.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Viktoria Otrokovice+0.00on par

Uherský Brod+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viktoria Otrokovice ↓

Uherský Brod →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Viktoria Otrokovice or draw

73%

Viktoria Otrokovice or Uherský Brod

78%

Draw or Uherský Brod

49%

Winning margin

Viktoria Otrokovice wins by 2+

29%

Uherský Brod wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Viktoria Otrokovice 1+ goals

86%

Viktoria Otrokovice 2+ goals

58%

Viktoria Otrokovice 3+ goals

31%

Uherský Brod 1+ goals

74%

Uherský Brod 2+ goals

39%

Uherský Brod 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Viktoria Otrokovice (draw refunded)

66%

Uherský Brod (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viktoria Otrokovice at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.77 · 66 matches

Uherský Brod away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.28 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viktoria Otrokovice attack 1.62 + Uherský Brod defence 2.28 → ÷2 → 1.95

Uherský Brod attack 0.93 + Viktoria Otrokovice defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Viktoria Otrokovice scores more

51%

level

22%

Uherský Brod scores more

27%

Viktoria Otrokovice at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Viktoria Otrokovice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff