Uherský Brod 1–3 Viktoria Otrokovice

Uherský Brod

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Viktoria Otrokovice

I. Ilic 82' (OG)

J. Kiska 76'

L. Nevaril 45+1' (OG)

D. Rapavy 37'

5/16/2023

3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 19UMT Lapač

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Uherský Brod48%

×Draw23%

Viktoria Otrokovice28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Uherský BrodExpected goals in this matchViktoria Otrokovice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.32

Uherský Brod

1.79

Viktoria Otrokovice

1.32

Uherský Brod creates 36% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 67 away

1.59

creates per match

1.39

1.26

allows per match

1.99

creates per match

Uherský Brod

1.59

Viktoria Otrokovice

1.39

allows per match

Uherský Brod

1.26

Viktoria Otrokovice

1.99

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Uherský Brod+0.00on par

Viktoria Otrokovice+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Uherský Brod ↓

Viktoria Otrokovice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Uherský Brod or draw

72%

Uherský Brod or Viktoria Otrokovice

77%

Draw or Viktoria Otrokovice

52%

Winning margin

Uherský Brod wins by 2+

26%

Viktoria Otrokovice wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Uherský Brod 1+ goals

83%

Uherský Brod 2+ goals

53%

Uherský Brod 3+ goals

26%

Viktoria Otrokovice 1+ goals

73%

Viktoria Otrokovice 2+ goals

38%

Viktoria Otrokovice 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Uherský Brod (draw refunded)

63%

Viktoria Otrokovice (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Uherský Brod at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.26 · 69 matches

Viktoria Otrokovice away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.99 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Uherský Brod attack 1.59 + Viktoria Otrokovice defence 1.99 → ÷2 → 1.79

Viktoria Otrokovice attack 1.39 + Uherský Brod defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Uherský Brod scores more

48%

level

23%

Viktoria Otrokovice scores more

28%

Uherský Brod at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Uherský Brod will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

37'

D. Rapavy

45+1'

M. Mancik

45+1'

L. NevarilOwn goal

46'

O. Strachon← O. Strachon

70'

A. Kadlcek← A. Kadlcek

70'

V. Stranak← V. Stranak

72'

M. Michalec

76'

M. Leskovjan

76'

J. Kiska

81'

T. Chrudina← T. Chrudina

81'

P. Chovan← P. Nemec

81'

M. Guzik← M. Guzik

82'

J. Michalec

82'

I. IlicOwn goal

88'

R. Smekal← R. Smekal

88'

L. Vychodil← L. Vychodil

90'

D. Rapavy← P. Jakubowicz

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff