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Viktoria Otrokovice vs Karviná II — 3. liga - MSFL 2019

Viktoria Otrokovice
Viktoria Otrokovice
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 3
Karviná II
Karviná II
9/8/20233. liga - MSFL3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 6Stadion FC Viktoria Otrokovice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Viktoria Otrokovice40%
×Draw23%
Karviná II37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Viktoria Otrokovice
1.70
Karviná II
1.64

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 66 home / 37 away

creates per match

Viktoria Otrokovice
1.62
Karviná II
1.51

allows per match

Viktoria Otrokovice
1.77
Karviná II
1.78

finishing

Viktoria Otrokovice+0.00on par
Karviná II+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viktoria Otrokovice ↓

Karviná II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Viktoria Otrokovice or draw
63%
Viktoria Otrokovice or Karviná II
77%
Draw or Karviná II
60%

Winning margin

Viktoria Otrokovice wins by 2+
20%
Karviná II wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Viktoria Otrokovice 1+ goals
82%
Viktoria Otrokovice 2+ goals
51%
Viktoria Otrokovice 3+ goals
24%
Karviná II 1+ goals
81%
Karviná II 2+ goals
49%
Karviná II 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Viktoria Otrokovice (draw refunded)
52%
Karviná II (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viktoria Otrokovice at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.77 · 66 matches

Karviná II away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.78 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viktoria Otrokovice attack 1.62 + Karviná II defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.70

Karviná II attack 1.51 + Viktoria Otrokovice defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Viktoria Otrokovice scores more
40%
level
23%
Karviná II scores more
37%

Viktoria Otrokovice at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Viktoria Otrokovice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - MSFL: Viktoria Otrokovice 0–5 Karviná II

Karviná II beat Viktoria Otrokovice 5-0 in 3. liga - MSFL on September 8, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion FC Viktoria Otrokovice in Otrokovice.