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Viktoria Köln U19 vs Verl U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Viktoria Köln U19
Viktoria Köln U19
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Verl U19
Verl U19
3/3/2024U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · West - 19Aggerstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Viktoria Köln U1960%
×Draw20%
Verl U1920%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Viktoria Köln U19
2.31
Verl U19
1.27

Viktoria Köln U19 creates 82% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 23 away

creates per match

Viktoria Köln U19
1.91
Verl U19
1.09

allows per match

Viktoria Köln U19
1.46
Verl U19
2.70

finishing

Viktoria Köln U19+0.00on par
Verl U19+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viktoria Köln U19 ↓

Verl U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Viktoria Köln U19 or draw
80%
Viktoria Köln U19 or Verl U19
80%
Draw or Verl U19
40%

Winning margin

Viktoria Köln U19 wins by 2+
38%
Verl U19 wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Viktoria Köln U19 1+ goals
90%
Viktoria Köln U19 2+ goals
67%
Viktoria Köln U19 3+ goals
40%
Verl U19 1+ goals
72%
Verl U19 2+ goals
36%
Verl U19 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Viktoria Köln U19 (draw refunded)
75%
Verl U19 (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viktoria Köln U19 at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.46 · 68 matches

Verl U19 away — creates 1.09, concedes 2.70 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viktoria Köln U19 attack 1.91 + Verl U19 defence 2.70 → ÷2 → 2.31

Verl U19 attack 1.09 + Viktoria Köln U19 defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Viktoria Köln U19 scores more
60%
level
20%
Verl U19 scores more
20%

Viktoria Köln U19 at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Viktoria Köln U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Viktoria Köln U19 0 – 0 Verl U19

Viktoria Köln U19 and Verl U19 drew 0-0 in U19 Bundesliga on March 3, 2024.

The match was played at Aggerstadion in Troisdorf.