Viktoria Köln U19 5–3 Preußen Münster U19

Viktoria Köln U19

FT

5 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Preußen Münster U19

L. de Meester de Tilbourg 72', 48'

J. Vieting 63', 56'

E. Jashari 49'

M. Schröder 79'

T. Gencoglu 31' (pen)

M. Keute 12'

4/30/2022

U19 Bundesliga · West - 17Aggerstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Viktoria Köln U1948%

×Draw22%

Preußen Münster U1930%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Viktoria Köln U19Expected goals in this matchPreußen Münster U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

1.53

Viktoria Köln U19

1.96

Preußen Münster U19

1.53

Viktoria Köln U19 creates 28% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 60 away

1.95

creates per match

1.65

1.42

allows per match

1.97

creates per match

Viktoria Köln U19

1.95

Preußen Münster U19

1.65

allows per match

Viktoria Köln U19

1.42

Preußen Münster U19

1.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Viktoria Köln U19+0.00on par

Preußen Münster U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viktoria Köln U19 ↓

Preußen Münster U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Viktoria Köln U19 or draw

70%

Viktoria Köln U19 or Preußen Münster U19

78%

Draw or Preußen Münster U19

52%

Winning margin

Viktoria Köln U19 wins by 2+

27%

Preußen Münster U19 wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Viktoria Köln U19 1+ goals

86%

Viktoria Köln U19 2+ goals

58%

Viktoria Köln U19 3+ goals

31%

Preußen Münster U19 1+ goals

78%

Preußen Münster U19 2+ goals

45%

Preußen Münster U19 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Viktoria Köln U19 (draw refunded)

61%

Preußen Münster U19 (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viktoria Köln U19 at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.42 · 66 matches

Preußen Münster U19 away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.97 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viktoria Köln U19 attack 1.95 + Preußen Münster U19 defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.96

Preußen Münster U19 attack 1.65 + Viktoria Köln U19 defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Viktoria Köln U19 scores more

48%

level

22%

Preußen Münster U19 scores more

30%

Viktoria Köln U19 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Viktoria Köln U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

M. Keute

31'

T. GencogluPenalty

46'

F. Fili← D. Kanzi

46'

B. Dybiec← F. Hinterding

48'

L. de Meester de Tilbourg

49'

E. Jashari

56'

J. Vieting

63'

J. Vieting

66'

M. Schröder← T. Gencoglu

70'

D. Czarnecki← S. Kaba

72'

L. de Meester de Tilbourg

77'

S. Sarrafyar← B. Dybiec

79'

M. Schröder

80'

K. Assadollahi← M. Aydin

87'

E. Albert← O. Mhamdi

90'

F. Schmidt← L. de Meester de Tilbourg

Viktoria

Preußen

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

⚽2

▼

Tilbourg

▼

Aydin

⚽

Jashari

Manager: M. Wilhelm

46'▲F. Fili←▼D. Kanzi

80'▲K. Assadollahi←▼M. Aydin

87'▲E. Albert←▼O. Mhamdi

90'▲F. Schmidt←▼L. de Meester de Tilbourg

Viktoria Köln U19 substitutes

FiliAssadollahiAlbertSchmidtMbayabuDurczokHill

Manager: A. Barez

46'▲B. Dybiec←▼F. Hinterding

66'▲M. Schröder←▼T. Gencoglu

70'▲D. Czarnecki←▼S. Kaba

77'▲S. Sarrafyar←▼B. Dybiec

Preußen Münster U19 substitutes

DybiecSchröderCzarneckiSarrafyarBräuerBenaBayir

U19 Bundesliga: Viktoria Köln U19 5–3 Preußen Münster U19

Viktoria Köln U19 beat Preußen Münster U19 5-3 in U19 Bundesliga on April 30, 2022.

Goals: M. Keute (12'), T. Gencoglu (31' pen), L. de Meester de Tilbourg (48', 72'), E. Jashari (49'), J. Vieting (56', 63'), M. Schröder (79').

The match was played at Aggerstadion in Troisdorf.

Viktoria Köln U19 vs Preußen Münster U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Viktoria Köln U19 5–3 Preußen Münster U19