Viktoria Köln U19 3–2 Hilden U19: Result & Stats

Viktoria Köln U19

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Hilden U19

O. Ichue 54'

E. Işık 29'

R. Aigbekaen 4'

J. Tkacik 81'

C. Mockschan 31'

2/12/2023

U19 Bundesliga · West - 12Aggerstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Viktoria Köln U1957%

×Draw20%

Hilden U1923%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Viktoria Köln U19Expected goals in this matchHilden U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.25

1.38

Viktoria Köln U19

2.25

Hilden U19

1.38

Viktoria Köln U19 creates 63% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 9 away

1.93

creates per match

1.33

1.43

allows per match

2.56

creates per match

Viktoria Köln U19

1.93

Hilden U19

1.33

allows per match

Viktoria Köln U19

1.43

Hilden U19

2.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Viktoria Köln U19+0.00on par

Hilden U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viktoria Köln U19 ↓

Hilden U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Viktoria Köln U19 or draw

77%

Viktoria Köln U19 or Hilden U19

80%

Draw or Hilden U19

43%

Winning margin

Viktoria Köln U19 wins by 2+

35%

Hilden U19 wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Viktoria Köln U19 1+ goals

89%

Viktoria Köln U19 2+ goals

65%

Viktoria Köln U19 3+ goals

39%

Hilden U19 1+ goals

75%

Hilden U19 2+ goals

40%

Hilden U19 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Viktoria Köln U19 (draw refunded)

71%

Hilden U19 (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viktoria Köln U19 at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.43 · 67 matches

Hilden U19 away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.56 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viktoria Köln U19 attack 1.93 + Hilden U19 defence 2.56 → ÷2 → 2.25

Hilden U19 attack 1.33 + Viktoria Köln U19 defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Viktoria Köln U19 scores more

57%

level

20%

Hilden U19 scores more

23%

Viktoria Köln U19 at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Viktoria Köln U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

29'

31'

54'

62'

F. Fili← O. Ichue

71'

B. Potnar← C. Kayser

71'

M. Beinhauer← B. Fazlija

73'

B. Gediktas← J. Walther

79'

T. Mersinli← S. Schröder

81'

J. Tkacik

83'

K. Taskale← K. Örgün

83'

L. Soldanski← E. Işık

Viktoria

Hilden

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Işık

⚽

▼

Ichue

Manager: M. Wilhelm

62'▲F. Fili←▼O. Ichue

73'▲B. Gediktas←▼J. Walther

83'▲K. Taskale←▼K. Örgün

83'▲L. Soldanski←▼E. Işık

Viktoria Köln U19 substitutes

FiliGediktasTaskaleSoldanskiBilgicDennerleinKubek

Manager: P. Schütz

71'▲B. Potnar←▼C. Kayser

71'▲M. Beinhauer←▼B. Fazlija

79'▲T. Mersinli←▼S. Schröder

Hilden U19 substitutes

PotnarBeinhauerMersinliDervisThesis

U19 Bundesliga: Viktoria Köln U19 3–2 Hilden U19

Viktoria Köln U19 beat Hilden U19 3-2 in U19 Bundesliga on February 12, 2023.

Goals: R. Aigbekaen (4'), E. Işık (29'), C. Mockschan (31'), O. Ichue (54'), J. Tkacik (81').

The match was played at Aggerstadion in Troisdorf.

Viktoria Köln U19 vs Hilden U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Viktoria Köln U19 3–2 Hilden U19