Viktoria Köln U19 3–1 Bayer Leverkusen U19

Viktoria Köln U19

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Bayer Leverkusen U19

12/4/2024

U19 Bundesliga · 1st Group Stage - 12Kunstrasenplatz Viktoria Köln 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Viktoria Köln U1936%

×Draw23%

Bayer Leverkusen U1942%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Viktoria Köln U19Expected goals in this matchBayer Leverkusen U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.78

Viktoria Köln U19

1.64

Bayer Leverkusen U19

1.78

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 68 home / 67 away

1.91

creates per match

2.10

1.46

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Viktoria Köln U19

1.91

Bayer Leverkusen U19

2.10

allows per match

Viktoria Köln U19

1.46

Bayer Leverkusen U19

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Viktoria Köln U19+0.00on par

Bayer Leverkusen U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viktoria Köln U19 ↓

Bayer Leverkusen U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Viktoria Köln U19 or draw

58%

Viktoria Köln U19 or Bayer Leverkusen U19

77%

Draw or Bayer Leverkusen U19

64%

Winning margin

Viktoria Köln U19 wins by 2+

18%

Bayer Leverkusen U19 wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Viktoria Köln U19 1+ goals

81%

Viktoria Köln U19 2+ goals

49%

Viktoria Köln U19 3+ goals

23%

Bayer Leverkusen U19 1+ goals

83%

Bayer Leverkusen U19 2+ goals

53%

Bayer Leverkusen U19 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Viktoria Köln U19 (draw refunded)

46%

Bayer Leverkusen U19 (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viktoria Köln U19 at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.46 · 68 matches

Bayer Leverkusen U19 away — creates 2.10, concedes 1.37 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viktoria Köln U19 attack 1.91 + Bayer Leverkusen U19 defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.64

Bayer Leverkusen U19 attack 2.10 + Viktoria Köln U19 defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Viktoria Köln U19 scores more

36%

level

23%

Bayer Leverkusen U19 scores more

42%

Bayer Leverkusen U19 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Bayer Leverkusen U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff