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Viktoria Herxheim vs Wormatia Worms — Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar 2020

Viktoria Herxheim
Viktoria Herxheim
FT
3 – 4
HT: 1 – 2
Wormatia Worms
Wormatia Worms
8/2/2024Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / SaarOberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 1Herxheim Rasenplatz 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Viktoria Herxheim30%
×Draw21%
Wormatia Worms49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Viktoria Herxheim
1.63
Wormatia Worms
2.12

Wormatia Worms creates 30% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 68 away

creates per match

Viktoria Herxheim
1.53
Wormatia Worms
1.99

allows per match

Viktoria Herxheim
2.24
Wormatia Worms
1.72

finishing

Viktoria Herxheim+0.00on par
Wormatia Worms+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viktoria Herxheim ↓

Wormatia Worms →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Viktoria Herxheim or draw
51%
Viktoria Herxheim or Wormatia Worms
79%
Draw or Wormatia Worms
70%

Winning margin

Viktoria Herxheim wins by 2+
14%
Wormatia Worms wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Viktoria Herxheim 1+ goals
80%
Viktoria Herxheim 2+ goals
48%
Viktoria Herxheim 3+ goals
22%
Wormatia Worms 1+ goals
88%
Wormatia Worms 2+ goals
62%
Wormatia Worms 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Viktoria Herxheim (draw refunded)
38%
Wormatia Worms (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viktoria Herxheim at home — creates 1.53, concedes 2.24 · 17 matches

Wormatia Worms away — creates 1.99, concedes 1.72 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viktoria Herxheim attack 1.53 + Wormatia Worms defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.63

Wormatia Worms attack 1.99 + Viktoria Herxheim defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 2.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Viktoria Herxheim scores more
30%
level
21%
Wormatia Worms scores more
49%

Wormatia Worms at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Wormatia Worms will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Viktoria Herxheim vs Wormatia Worms

Wormatia Worms beat Viktoria Herxheim 4-3 in Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar on August 2, 2024.

The match was played at Herxheim Rasenplatz 1 in Herxheim.