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Viktoria Griesheim vs 1960 Hanau — Oberliga - Hessen 2020

Viktoria Griesheim
Viktoria Griesheim
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
1960 Hanau
1960 Hanau
10/3/2023Oberliga - HessenOberliga - Hessen · Hessen - 11Südstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Viktoria Griesheim44%
×Draw21%
1960 Hanau34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Viktoria Griesheim
2.02
1960 Hanau
1.77

Viktoria Griesheim creates 14% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 52 away

creates per match

Viktoria Griesheim
1.81
1960 Hanau
1.87

allows per match

Viktoria Griesheim
1.67
1960 Hanau
2.23

finishing

Viktoria Griesheim+0.00on par
1960 Hanau+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viktoria Griesheim ↓

1960 Hanau →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Viktoria Griesheim or draw
66%
Viktoria Griesheim or 1960 Hanau
79%
Draw or 1960 Hanau
56%

Winning margin

Viktoria Griesheim wins by 2+
25%
1960 Hanau wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Viktoria Griesheim 1+ goals
87%
Viktoria Griesheim 2+ goals
60%
Viktoria Griesheim 3+ goals
33%
1960 Hanau 1+ goals
83%
1960 Hanau 2+ goals
53%
1960 Hanau 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Viktoria Griesheim (draw refunded)
56%
1960 Hanau (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viktoria Griesheim at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.67 · 58 matches

1960 Hanau away — creates 1.87, concedes 2.23 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viktoria Griesheim attack 1.81 + 1960 Hanau defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 2.02

1960 Hanau attack 1.87 + Viktoria Griesheim defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Viktoria Griesheim scores more
44%
level
21%
1960 Hanau scores more
34%

Viktoria Griesheim at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Viktoria Griesheim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Hessen: Viktoria Griesheim 1–4 1960 Hanau

1960 Hanau beat Viktoria Griesheim 4-1 in Oberliga - Hessen on October 3, 2023.

The match was played at Südstadion in Griesheim.