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Viktoria Berlin vs FC Augsburg — DFB Pokal 2018

Viktoria Berlin
Viktoria Berlin
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 1
FC Augsburg
FC Augsburg
A. Liu 4'
P. Tietz 90+2'
N. Dorsch 86'
S. Essende 53'
E. Rexhbeçaj 33'
8/18/2024DFB PokalDFB Pokal · 1st RoundFriedrich-Ludwig-Jahn-Sportpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Viktoria Berlin6%
×Draw13%
FC Augsburg82%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Viktoria Berlin
0.56
FC Augsburg
2.67

FC Augsburg creates 377% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 9 away

creates per match

Viktoria Berlin
0.33
FC Augsburg
2.67

allows per match

Viktoria Berlin
2.67
FC Augsburg
0.78

finishing

Viktoria Berlin+0.00on par
FC Augsburg+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viktoria Berlin ↓

FC Augsburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–111%
0–214%
0–313%
0–49%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–28%
1–37%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–22%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (14%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Viktoria Berlin or draw
18%
Viktoria Berlin or FC Augsburg
87%
Draw or FC Augsburg
94%

Winning margin

Viktoria Berlin wins by 2+
1%
FC Augsburg wins by 2+
61%

Team goals

Viktoria Berlin 1+ goals
43%
Viktoria Berlin 2+ goals
11%
Viktoria Berlin 3+ goals
2%
FC Augsburg 1+ goals
93%
FC Augsburg 2+ goals
74%
FC Augsburg 3+ goals
49%

Draw no bet

Viktoria Berlin (draw refunded)
6%
FC Augsburg (draw refunded)
94%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viktoria Berlin at home — creates 0.33, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

FC Augsburg away — creates 2.67, concedes 0.78 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viktoria Berlin attack 0.33 + FC Augsburg defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.56

FC Augsburg attack 2.67 + Viktoria Berlin defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 82%?"

Viktoria Berlin scores more
6%
level
13%
FC Augsburg scores more
82%

FC Augsburg at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "FC Augsburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13
D. GiannoulisFC AugsburgFC Augsburg · D
8.3

Match Events

4'
A. Liu↳ N. Hebisch
33'
E. Rexhbeçaj↳ P. Tietz
47'
Elvis Rexhbeçaj
53'
S. Essende↳ A. Maier
57'
Metehan Yildirim
61'
Alexander Dikarev
66'
K. Jakić← M. Pedersen
66'
Y. Kabadayı← S. Essende
66'
M. Wolf← T. Breithaupt
70'
S. Mensah← R. Lisinski
70'
O. Skakun← J. Lippegaus
70'
E. Elekwa← M. Mohamed
72'
N. Dorsch← E. Rexhbeçaj
77'
Shean Mensah
79'
R. Vargas← A. Maier
80'
D. Coric← M. Yıldırım
81'
K. Günay← J. Damelang
82'
Dimitrios Giannoulis
86'
Kristijan Jakić
86'
N. Dorsch↳ Y. Kabadayı
90+2'
P. Tietz↳ D. Giannoulis

Possession

24%Viktoria

Shots

6Viktoria

Pass accuracy

41%Viktoria

Statistics

ViktoriaFC
Overview
24%Possession76%
6Total Shots16
3Corners7
17Fouls7
Shots
6Total Shots16
2On Target8
4Off Target5
0Blocked3
4Inside Box11
2Outside Box5
Passing
24%Possession76%
191Total Passes616
113Accurate Passes526
59%Pass Accuracy85%
Goalkeeping
3Saves1
Discipline
17Fouls7
3Yellow Cards3
3Offsides2

DFB Pokal: Viktoria Berlin 1–4 FC Augsburg

FC Augsburg beat Viktoria Berlin 4-1 in DFB Pokal on August 18, 2024.

Goals: A. Liu (4'), E. Rexhbeçaj (33'), S. Essende (53'), N. Dorsch (86'), P. Tietz (90+2').

FC Augsburg controlled possession (76%) and registered 16 shots to 6.

The match was played at Friedrich-Ludwig-Jahn-Sportpark in Berlin.