Viktoria Berlin U19 2–0 Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19

Viktoria Berlin U19

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19

M. Oglou 59', 27' (pen)

4/26/2025

U19 Bundesliga · 2nd Phase Group B - 11Sportplatz Schildhornstraße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Viktoria Berlin U1952%

×Draw20%

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U1928%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Viktoria Berlin U19Expected goals in this matchRot-Weiß Erfurt U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.23

1.59

Viktoria Berlin U19

2.23

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19

1.59

Viktoria Berlin U19 creates 40% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 26 away

1.61

creates per match

0.81

2.37

allows per match

2.85

creates per match

Viktoria Berlin U19

1.61

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19

0.81

allows per match

Viktoria Berlin U19

2.37

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19

2.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Viktoria Berlin U19+0.00on par

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viktoria Berlin U19 ↓

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Viktoria Berlin U19 or draw

72%

Viktoria Berlin U19 or Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19

80%

Draw or Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19

48%

Winning margin

Viktoria Berlin U19 wins by 2+

31%

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Viktoria Berlin U19 1+ goals

89%

Viktoria Berlin U19 2+ goals

65%

Viktoria Berlin U19 3+ goals

38%

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 1+ goals

80%

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 2+ goals

47%

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Viktoria Berlin U19 (draw refunded)

65%

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viktoria Berlin U19 at home — creates 1.61, concedes 2.37 · 41 matches

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 away — creates 0.81, concedes 2.85 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viktoria Berlin U19 attack 1.61 + Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 defence 2.85 → ÷2 → 2.23

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 attack 0.81 + Viktoria Berlin U19 defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Viktoria Berlin U19 scores more

52%

level

20%

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 scores more

28%

Viktoria Berlin U19 at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Viktoria Berlin U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'

M. OglouPenalty

46'

M. Fall← B. Pick

46'

C. Kobelt← F. Miethe

59'

M. Oglou

64'

C. Kaba← M. Kponton

64'

D. Rank← K. Bajramovic

78'

C. Quiring← F. Sentürk

78'

L. Seitz← J. Kortebusch

79'

L. Weigand← A. Stephan

Viktoria

Rot-Weiß

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

Manager: H. Keskin

46'▲M. Fall←▼B. Pick

78'▲C. Quiring←▼F. Sentürk

78'▲L. Seitz←▼J. Kortebusch

Viktoria Berlin U19 substitutes

FallQuiringSeitzKummerowBekdemirPastorLox

Manager: T. Kost

46'▲C. Kobelt←▼F. Miethe

64'▲C. Kaba←▼M. Kponton

64'▲D. Rank←▼K. Bajramovic

79'▲L. Weigand←▼A. Stephan

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 substitutes

KobeltKabaRankWeigandKessel

U19 Bundesliga: Viktoria Berlin U19 2–0 Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19

Viktoria Berlin U19 beat Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 2-0 in U19 Bundesliga on April 26, 2025.

Goals: M. Oglou (27' pen, 59').

The match was played at Sportplatz Schildhornstraße in Berlin.

Viktoria Berlin U19 vs Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Viktoria Berlin U19 2–0 Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19