Viktoria Berlin U19 2–1 Hertha Zehlendorf U19

Viktoria Berlin U19

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Hertha Zehlendorf U19

P. Helmich 90+1'

O. Scacun 36'

L. Millgramm 15'

3/4/2023

U19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 16Allianzstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Viktoria Berlin U1928%

×Draw20%

Hertha Zehlendorf U1951%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Viktoria Berlin U19Expected goals in this matchHertha Zehlendorf U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

2.23

Viktoria Berlin U19

1.63

Hertha Zehlendorf U19

2.23

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 creates 37% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 11 away

1.61

creates per match

2.09

2.37

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Viktoria Berlin U19

1.61

Hertha Zehlendorf U19

2.09

allows per match

Viktoria Berlin U19

2.37

Hertha Zehlendorf U19

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Viktoria Berlin U19+0.00on par

Hertha Zehlendorf U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viktoria Berlin U19 ↓

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–25%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–03%

1–18%

1–29%

1–36%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

53%47%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Viktoria Berlin U19 or draw

49%

Viktoria Berlin U19 or Hertha Zehlendorf U19

80%

Draw or Hertha Zehlendorf U19

72%

Winning margin

Viktoria Berlin U19 wins by 2+

13%

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

Viktoria Berlin U19 1+ goals

80%

Viktoria Berlin U19 2+ goals

48%

Viktoria Berlin U19 3+ goals

22%

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 1+ goals

89%

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 2+ goals

65%

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 3+ goals

38%

Draw no bet

Viktoria Berlin U19 (draw refunded)

36%

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viktoria Berlin U19 at home — creates 1.61, concedes 2.37 · 41 matches

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 away — creates 2.09, concedes 1.64 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viktoria Berlin U19 attack 1.61 + Hertha Zehlendorf U19 defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.63

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 attack 2.09 + Viktoria Berlin U19 defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 2.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Viktoria Berlin U19 scores more

28%

level

20%

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 scores more

51%

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Hertha Zehlendorf U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

L. Millgramm

36'

O. Scacun

56'

J. Nnaemeka-Chukwurah← P. Behrend

56'

T. Koczulap← E. Akova

61'

L. Sommerfeld← G. Gashi

76'

J. Hartl← G. Didoss

80'

L. Zdep

80'

L. Zdep

81'

F. Pereira Mendes← M. Yildirim

90'

T. Koczulap

90'

T. Koczulap

90+1'

P. Helmich

Viktoria

Hertha

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: H. Keskin

61'▲L. Sommerfeld←▼G. Gashi

81'▲F. Pereira Mendes←▼M. Yildirim

Viktoria Berlin U19 substitutes

SommerfeldMendesSchmüserMelentijevicYasarSimao

Manager: M. Siebert

56'▲J. Nnaemeka-Chukwurah←▼P. Behrend

56'▲T. Koczulap←▼E. Akova

76'▲J. Hartl←▼G. Didoss

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 substitutes

Nnaemeka-ChukwurahKoczulapHartlSolimanKarikaAkovaBöge