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Viktoria Aschaffenburg vs Würzburger Kickers — Regionalliga - Bayern 2019

Viktoria Aschaffenburg
Viktoria Aschaffenburg
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Würzburger Kickers
Würzburger Kickers
9/5/2025Regionalliga - BayernRegionalliga - Bayern · Bayern - 7Stadion am Schönbusch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Viktoria Aschaffenburg25%
×Draw24%
Würzburger Kickers51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Viktoria Aschaffenburg
1.14
Würzburger Kickers
1.73

Würzburger Kickers creates 52% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 54 away

creates per match

Viktoria Aschaffenburg
1.52
Würzburger Kickers
2.11

allows per match

Viktoria Aschaffenburg
1.36
Würzburger Kickers
0.76

finishing

Viktoria Aschaffenburg+0.00on par
Würzburger Kickers+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viktoria Aschaffenburg ↓

Würzburger Kickers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Viktoria Aschaffenburg or draw
49%
Viktoria Aschaffenburg or Würzburger Kickers
76%
Draw or Würzburger Kickers
75%

Winning margin

Viktoria Aschaffenburg wins by 2+
10%
Würzburger Kickers wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Viktoria Aschaffenburg 1+ goals
68%
Viktoria Aschaffenburg 2+ goals
32%
Viktoria Aschaffenburg 3+ goals
11%
Würzburger Kickers 1+ goals
82%
Würzburger Kickers 2+ goals
52%
Würzburger Kickers 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Viktoria Aschaffenburg (draw refunded)
33%
Würzburger Kickers (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viktoria Aschaffenburg at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.36 · 89 matches

Würzburger Kickers away — creates 2.11, concedes 0.76 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viktoria Aschaffenburg attack 1.52 + Würzburger Kickers defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.14

Würzburger Kickers attack 2.11 + Viktoria Aschaffenburg defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Viktoria Aschaffenburg scores more
25%
level
24%
Würzburger Kickers scores more
51%

Würzburger Kickers at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Würzburger Kickers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Regionalliga - Bayern: Viktoria Aschaffenburg 0–1 Würzburger Kickers

Würzburger Kickers beat Viktoria Aschaffenburg 1-0 in Regionalliga - Bayern on September 5, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion am Schönbusch in Aschaffenburg.