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Viktoria Aschaffenburg vs Wormatia Worms — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Viktoria Aschaffenburg
Viktoria Aschaffenburg
FT
3 – 3
HT: 2 – 2
Wormatia Worms
Wormatia Worms
B. Baier 58', 38' (pen), 30'
M. Ozkaya 81' (pen), 14'
V. Rona 10'
7/4/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Viktoria Aschaffenburg24%
×Draw18%
Wormatia Worms58%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Viktoria Aschaffenburg
1.72
Wormatia Worms
2.72

Wormatia Worms creates 58% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 3 away

creates per match

Viktoria Aschaffenburg
1.11
Wormatia Worms
3.00

allows per match

Viktoria Aschaffenburg
2.44
Wormatia Worms
2.33

finishing

Viktoria Aschaffenburg+0.00on par
Wormatia Worms+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viktoria Aschaffenburg ↓

Wormatia Worms →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–24%
0–34%
0–43%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–28%
1–37%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
82%18%3.5
64%36%4.5
44%56%

Double chance

Viktoria Aschaffenburg or draw
42%
Viktoria Aschaffenburg or Wormatia Worms
82%
Draw or Wormatia Worms
76%

Winning margin

Viktoria Aschaffenburg wins by 2+
11%
Wormatia Worms wins by 2+
38%

Team goals

Viktoria Aschaffenburg 1+ goals
82%
Viktoria Aschaffenburg 2+ goals
51%
Viktoria Aschaffenburg 3+ goals
25%
Wormatia Worms 1+ goals
93%
Wormatia Worms 2+ goals
75%
Wormatia Worms 3+ goals
50%

Draw no bet

Viktoria Aschaffenburg (draw refunded)
29%
Wormatia Worms (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viktoria Aschaffenburg at home — creates 1.11, concedes 2.44 · 9 matches

Wormatia Worms away — creates 3.00, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viktoria Aschaffenburg attack 1.11 + Wormatia Worms defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.72

Wormatia Worms attack 3.00 + Viktoria Aschaffenburg defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 2.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Viktoria Aschaffenburg scores more
24%
level
18%
Wormatia Worms scores more
58%

Wormatia Worms at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Wormatia Worms will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'
V. Rona
14'
M. Ozkaya
30'
B. Baier
38'
B. BaierPenalty
58'
B. Baier
81'
M. OzkayaPenalty
Viktoria
Wormatia
D. Agovic
Manager: D. Agovic
P. Tretter
Manager: P. Tretter

Match Recap: Viktoria Aschaffenburg vs Wormatia Worms

Viktoria Aschaffenburg and Wormatia Worms drew 3-3 in Friendlies Clubs on July 4, 2026.

Goals: V. Rona (10'), M. Ozkaya (14', 81' pen), B. Baier (30', 38' pen, 58').