Viktoria Arnoldsweiler vs Pesch

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler

CANC

13:00

Pesch

4/5/2021

Oberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 22Bertram-Möthrath-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler49%

×Draw22%

Pesch29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Viktoria ArnoldsweilerExpected goals in this matchPesch

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.99

1.50

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler

1.99

Pesch

1.50

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler creates 33% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 63 away

1.56

creates per match

1.46

1.53

allows per match

2.41

creates per match

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler

1.56

Pesch

1.46

allows per match

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler

1.53

Pesch

2.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler+0.00on par

Pesch+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler ↓

Pesch →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler or draw

71%

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler or Pesch

78%

Draw or Pesch

51%

Winning margin

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler wins by 2+

28%

Pesch wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler 1+ goals

86%

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler 2+ goals

59%

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler 3+ goals

32%

Pesch 1+ goals

78%

Pesch 2+ goals

44%

Pesch 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler (draw refunded)

63%

Pesch (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.53 · 36 matches

Pesch away — creates 1.46, concedes 2.41 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler attack 1.56 + Pesch defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 1.99

Pesch attack 1.46 + Viktoria Arnoldsweiler defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler scores more

49%

level

22%

Pesch scores more

29%

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Viktoria Arnoldsweiler will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff