Viktoria Arnoldsweiler 1–4 Hennef 05

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Hennef 05

3/6/2022

Oberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 20Bertram-Möthrath-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler38%

×Draw23%

Hennef 0540%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Viktoria ArnoldsweilerExpected goals in this matchHennef 05

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.75

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler

1.71

Hennef 05

1.75

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 36 home / 81 away

1.56

creates per match

1.98

1.53

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler

1.56

Hennef 05

1.98

allows per match

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler

1.53

Hennef 05

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler+0.00on par

Hennef 05+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler ↓

Hennef 05 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler or draw

60%

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler or Hennef 05

77%

Draw or Hennef 05

62%

Winning margin

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler wins by 2+

19%

Hennef 05 wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler 1+ goals

82%

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler 2+ goals

51%

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler 3+ goals

24%

Hennef 05 1+ goals

83%

Hennef 05 2+ goals

52%

Hennef 05 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler (draw refunded)

49%

Hennef 05 (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.53 · 36 matches

Hennef 05 away — creates 1.98, concedes 1.86 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler attack 1.56 + Hennef 05 defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.71

Hennef 05 attack 1.98 + Viktoria Arnoldsweiler defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler scores more

38%

level

23%

Hennef 05 scores more

40%

Hennef 05 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Hennef 05 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff